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Early-season warning of soybean rust regional epidemics using El Niño Southern/Oscillation information

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Abstract

Soybean rust (SBR) is a disease of significant impact to Brazilian soybean production. Twenty-four locations in a major growing region in southern Brazil, where long-term (30 years) weather information was available, were selected to estimate the risk of SBR epidemics and identify potential predictors derived from El Niño 3.4 region. A rainfall-based model was used to predict SBR severity in an “epidemic development window” (the months of February and March for the studied region) in the time series. Twenty-eight daily simulations for each year-location (n = 720) were performed considering each day after 31 January as a hypothetical detection date (HDD) to estimate a severity index (SBRindex). The mean SBRindex in a single year was defined as the ‘growing season severity index’ (GSSI) for that year. A probabilistic risk assessment related GSSI and sea surface temperatures (SST) at the El Niño 3.4. region (here categorized as warm, cold or neutral phase) in October–November–December (OND) of the same growing season. Overall, the median GSSI across location-years was 34.5%. The risk of GSSI exceeding 60% was generally low and ranged from 0 to 20 percentage points, with the higher values found in the northern regions of the state when compared to the central-western. During a warm OND-SST phase, the probability of GSSI exceeding its overall mean (locations pooled) increased significantly by around 25 percentage points compared to neutral and cold SST phases, especially over the central western region. This study demonstrates the potential to use El Niño/Southern Oscillation information to anticipate the risk of SBR epidemics up to 1 month in advance at a regional scale.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Holger Meinke (Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University) for a critical review of the manuscript. This research was funded by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq (Edital CNPq/MAPA/SDA Nº 064/2008).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 7712, 91540000, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

    Emerson M. Del Ponte, Thiago V. dos Santos & Eduardo J. Martins

  2. Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Rodovia SP 340–Km 127,5, Caixa Postal 69, 13820000, Jaguariuna, SP, Brazil

    Aline de H. N. Maia

  3. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), P.O. Box 1000, 61 Route 9W, Monell Building, Palisades, NY, 10964-1000, USA

    Walter E. Baethgen

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  1. Emerson M. Del Ponte
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  2. Aline de H. N. Maia
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  3. Thiago V. dos Santos
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  4. Eduardo J. Martins
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  5. Walter E. Baethgen
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Correspondence to Emerson M. Del Ponte.

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Del Ponte, E.M., Maia, A.H.N., dos Santos, T.V. et al. Early-season warning of soybean rust regional epidemics using El Niño Southern/Oscillation information. Int J Biometeorol 55, 575–583 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6

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