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Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m3/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha−1 d−1), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today’s mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF grant number DEB-0918262) and the Central Arizona–Phoenix LTER (DEB-0423704 and BCS-1026865), and done in part while LY was a visiting scholar at Arizona State University. We appreciate constructive comments on the manuscript by two anonymous reviewers and Benjamin Ruddell.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology, Institute of Hydrobiology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430072, People’s Republic of China

    Lin Ye

  2. School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 874501, Tempe, AZ, 85287-4501, USA

    Nancy B. Grimm

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  1. Lin Ye
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  2. Nancy B. Grimm
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Correspondence to Nancy B. Grimm.

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Ye, L., Grimm, N.B. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest. Climatic Change 120, 419–431 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0827-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0827-z

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