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Improved estimation of average warming trend of China from 1951–2010 based on satellite observed land-use data

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Abstract

This paper provides new evidence of regional warming trends from local Chinese observations covering the period 1951–2010. We used satellite-derived land data and weighted urban and rural temperature records (a weighted method) and estimate the regional warming trend, which involves natural climate change and human impact. The annual warming rate over the whole of China is 0.21 ± 0.02 °C/decade. The seasonal warming is 0.30 ± 0.05 °C/decade (Winter), 0.24 °C ± 0.03 °C/decade (Spring); 0.16 ± 0.02 °C/decade (Summer) and 0.21 ± 0.03 °C/decade (Autumn). The mean warming trend is lower than previous estimates (e.g. NMIC, CRU-China) using un-weighted methods (arithmetic average of all records). The warming difference between the weighted and un-weighted accounts for 27 % (12 %) of the NMIC (CRU-China) un-weighted estimate on the total warming. This indicates that previous estimations overestimated a regional warming trend. The differences can be partly attributed to the weighting of the urban effect which is taken into consideration in this study, resulting in a much slower temperature increase. Spatially, the northern part of China shows a larger difference than the south especially for winter and spring. We argue that it is of importance to take into consideration the influence of urban land-use change to improve the physical understanding of surface warming in China over past decades.

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Abbreviations

CAM:

Climate Anomaly Method

CAS:

Chinese Academy of Sciences

CE:

Coefficient of Efficiency

CMA:

China Meteorological Administration

CRU:

Climatic Research Unit

FDM:

First Differences Method

GCPs:

Ground Control Points

GISS:

Goddard Institute for Space Studies

NASA:

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NMIC:

National Meteorological Information Centre

P-E:

Peterson and Easterling

RE:

Reduction of Error

RSM:

Reference Station Method

SAT:

Surface Air Temperature

SD:

Standard Deviations

SE:

Sampling error

UHI:

Urban Heat Island

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Profs. Wang Shaowu, Li Qinxiang, Xu Xinliang and Dr. Zhang Xuezheng for their valuable comments and data support. This work was supported by the MOST project of China (2010CB950101), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41101083), the Chinese Academy of Sciences project (XDA05080100), the DFG Projects AFICHE (“Attribution of forced and internal Chinese climate variability in the common era”) and PRIME 2 (“Precipitation In past Millennia in Europe- extension back to Roman times”,) within the Priority Programme “INTERDYNAMIK”.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China

    Quansheng Ge & Fang Wang

  2. Department of Geography; Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Germany

    Juerg Luterbacher

Authors
  1. Quansheng Ge
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  2. Fang Wang
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  3. Juerg Luterbacher
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fang Wang.

Additional information

This work was supported by the MOST project of China (2010CB950101), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41101083), the Chinese Academy of Sciences project (XDA05080100), the DFG Projects AFICHE (“Attribution of forced and internal Chinese climate variability in the common era”) and PRIME 2 (“Precipitation In past Millennia in Europe- extension back to Roman times”) within the Priority Programme “INTERDYNAMIK”.

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Ge, Q., Wang, F. & Luterbacher, J. Improved estimation of average warming trend of China from 1951–2010 based on satellite observed land-use data. Climatic Change 121, 365–379 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0867-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0867-4

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