Abstract
In this study, we develop a new integrated assessment model called the BET model (Basic Energy systems, Economy, Environment, and End-use Technology Model). It is a multi-regional, global model based on Ramsey’s optimal growth theory and includes not only traditional end-use technologies but also advanced end-use technologies such as heat-pump water heaters and electric vehicles. Using the BET model, we conduct simulations and obtain the following results. (1) Advanced end-use technologies have an important role in containing carbon prices as well as GDP losses when GHG (greenhouse gas) constraints are stringent. (2) Electrification based on energy services progresses rapidly in scenarios with stringent GHG constraints. This is because electricity can be supplied by various methods of non-fossil power generation, and advanced end-use technologies can drastically improve energy-to-service efficiencies. The BET’s results indicate the importance of analyses that systematically combine environmental constraints, end-use technologies, supply energy technologies, and economic development.
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Acknowledgment
We greatly appreciate the kindness of the MERGE group to make a version of the code available online, which helped us develop the BET model.
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This article is part of the Special Issue on “The EMF27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy Strategies” edited by John Weyant, Elmar Kriegler, Geoffrey Blanford, Volker Krey, Jae Edmonds, Keywan Riahi, Richard Richels, and Massimo Tavoni.
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Yamamoto, H., Sugiyama, M. & Tsutsui, J. Role of end-use technologies in long-term GHG reduction scenarios developed with the BET model. Climatic Change 123, 583–596 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0938-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0938-6