Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Impact assessment of climate change, carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rice is the staple food in China, and the country’s enlarging population puts increasing pressure on its rice production as well as on that of the world. In this study, we estimate the impact of climate change, CO2 fertilization, crop adaptation and the interactions of these three factors on the rice yields of China using model simulation with four hypothetical scenarios. According to the results of the model simulation, the rice yields without CO2 fertilization are predicted to decrease by 3.3 % in the 2040s. Considering a constant rice-growing season (GS), the rice yields are predicted to increase by 3.2 %. When the effect of CO2 fertilization is integrated into the Agro-C model, the expected rice yields increase by 20.9 %. When constant GS and CO2 fertilization are both integrated into the model, the predicted rice yield increases by 28.6 %. In summary, the rice yields in China are predicted to decrease in the 2040s by 0.22 t/ha due to climate change, to increase by 0.44 t/ha due to a constant GS and to increase by 1.65 t/ha due to CO2 fertilization. The benefits of crop adaptation would completely offset the negative impact of climate change. In the future, the most of the positive effects of climate change are expected to occur in northeastern and northwestern China, and the expansion of rice cultivation in northeastern China should further enhance the stability of rice production in China.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+
from $39.99 /Month
  • Starting from 10 chapters or articles per month
  • Access and download chapters and articles from more than 300k books and 2,500 journals
  • Cancel anytime
View plans

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles and news from researchers in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.

References

  • Ainsworth EA (2008) Rice production in a changing climate: a meta-analysis of responses to elevated carbon dioxide and elevated ozone concentration. Glob Change Biol 14:1642–1650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bannayan M, Mansoori H, Rezaei EE (2013) Estimating climate change, CO (2) and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran. Int. J. Biometeorol.

  • Beldring S, Engen-Skaugen T, FØRland EJ, Roald LA (2008) Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites. Tellus A 60:439–450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S, Simelton E, Fraser E (2009) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J Exp Bot 60:2775–2789

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chavas DR, Izaurralde RC, Thomson AM, Gao X (2009) Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China. Agr For Meteorol 149:1118–1128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen C, Qian C, Deng A, Zhang W (2012) Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China. Eur J Agron 38:94–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • China National Rice Research Institute (1988) Regional zonation of rice cropping in China (in Chinese with English summary. Zhejiang Publishing Press of Science and Technology, Hangzhou

    Google Scholar 

  • Deryng D, Sacks WJ, Barford CC, Ramankutty N (2011) Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield. Global Biogeochem. Cy. 25:GB2006

  • Ewert F (2012) Adaptation: opportunities in climate change? Nat Clim Chang 2:153–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAOSTAT (2013) Statistics database. Available on http://faostat.fao.org

  • Gammulla CG, Pascovici D, Atwell BJ, Haynes PA (2010) Differential metabolic response of cultured rice (Oryza sativa) cells exposed to high- and low-temperature stress. Proteomics 10:3001–3019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gervois S, Ciais P, de Noblet-Ducoudre’ N, Brisson N, Vuichard N, Viovy N (2008) Carbon and water balance of European croplands throughout the 20th century. Global Biogeochem. Cy. 22:GB2022, doi:2010.1029/2007GB003018

  • Hay LE, Wilby RL, Leavesley GH (2000) A comparision of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States. J Am Water Resour Assoc 36:387–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Zhang W, Sun W, Zheng X (2007) Net primary production of Chinese croplands from 1950 to 1999. Ecol Appl 17:692–701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Yu Y, Zhang W, Sun W, Liu S, Jiang J, Wu J, Yu W, Wang Y, Yang Z (2009) Agro-C: a biogeophysical model for simulating the carbon budget of agroecosystems. Agr For Meteorol 149:106–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim HY, Ko J, Kang S, Tenhunen J (2013) Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate. Glob Change Biol 19:548–562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lanning SB, Siebenmorgen TJ, Counce PA, Ambardekar AA, Mauromoustakos A (2011) Extreme nighttime air temperatures in 2010 impact rice chalkiness and milling quality. Field Crops Res 124:132–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Q, Dong W, Li W, Gao X, Jones P, Kennedy J, Parker D (2010) Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century. Chin Sci Bull 55:1974–1982

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin E, Xiong W, Ju H, Xu Y, Li Y, Bai L, Xie L (2005) Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos T Roy Soc B 360:2149–2154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y, Wang E, Yang X, Wang J (2010) Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Glob Change Biol 16:2287–2299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu L, Wang E, Zhu Y, Tang L (2012) Contrasting effects of warming and autonomous breeding on single-rice productivity in China. Agr Ecosyst Environ 149:20–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Long SP (2012) Virtual special issue on food security—greater than anticipated impacts of near-term global atmospheric change on rice and wheat. Glob Change Biol 18:1489–1490

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mao CX (2010) Developing indica-type hybrid rice in China. In: Xie F, Hardy B (eds) Accelerating hybrid rice development. International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños (Philippines), pp 581–592

    Google Scholar 

  • Masutomi Y, Takahashi K, Harasawa H, Matsuoka Y (2009) Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models. Agr Ecosyst Environ 131:281–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grubler A, Jung TY, Kram T (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (US), Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (US)

  • National Bureau of Statistics of China (2013) Statistics database. Available on http://219.235.129.58/welcome.do

  • Peng X (2011) China’s demographic history and future challenges. Science 333:581–587

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Laza R, Visperas R, Sanico A, Cassman KG, Khush G (2000) Grain yield of rice cultivars and lines developed in the Philippines since 1966. Crop Sci 40:307–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Khush GS, Virk P, Tang Q, Zou Y (2008) Progress in ideotype breeding to increase rice yield potential. Field Crops Res 108:32–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prudhomme C, Reynard N, Crooks S (2002) Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? Hydrol Process 16:1137–1150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig MR, Binswanger HP (1992) Wealth, weather risk, and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments. World Bank Publications

  • Shrestha S, Asch F, Brueck H, Giese M, Dusserre J, Ramanantsoanirina A (2013) Phenological responses of upland rice grown along an altitudinal gradient. Environ Exp Bot 89:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slayton T (2009) Rice crisis forensics: how Asian governments carelessly set the world rice market on fire. Center for Global Development Working Paper 163

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Liu J, Zhang Z (2008) Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Res 38:83–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton PE, Running SW, White MA (1997) Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. J Hydrol 190:214–251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton PE, Hasenauer H, White MA (2000) Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria. Agr For Meteorol 104:255–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wan Y, Lin E, Xiong W, Ye L, Guo L (2011) Modeling the impact of climate change on soil organic carbon stock in upland soils in the 21st century in China. Agr Ecosyst Environ 141:23–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E, Holman I (2009a) Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production. Clim Res 40:23–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E, Xu Y, Ju H, Jiang J, Holmam I, Li Y (2009b) Future cereal production in China: the interaction of climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 19:34–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Holman I, Lin E, Conway D, Li Y, Wu W (2012) Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China. Environ Res Lett 7:044014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang X, Liu Z, Chen F (2011) The possible effect of climate warming on northern limits of cropping system and crop yield in China. Sci Agric Sin 10:585–594

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu D, Shi X, Wang H, Sun W, Chen J, Liu Q, Zhao Y (2007) Regional patterns of soil organic carbon stocks in China. J Environ Manag 85:680–689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu Y, Huang Y, Zhang W (2012a) Changes in rice yields in China since 1980 associated with cultivar improvement, climate and crop management. Field Crops Res 136:65–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu Y, Huang Y, Zhang W (2012b) Modeling soil organic carbon change in croplands of China, 1980–2009. Glob Planet Chang 82–83:115–128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu Y, Huang Y, Zhang W (2013) Projected changes in soil organic carbon stocks of China’s croplandsunder different agricultural managements, 2011–2050. Agric Ecosyst Environ 178:109–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang F, Wang D, Qiu B (1987) Agro-phenological atlas of China (in Chinese with English content). Science Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang W, Huang Y, Sun W, Yu Y (2007) Simulating crop net primary production in China from 2000 to 2050 by linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS’s model climate change scenario. Adv Atmos Sci 24:845–854

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou Y, Li N, Dong G, Wu W (2013) Impact assessment of recent climate change on rice yields in the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of Northeast China. J. Sci. Food Agric

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was jointly supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2012CB417106 & 2010CB950604), the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05050507) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41321064).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Yongqiang Yu & Wen Zhang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093, China

    Yao Huang

Authors
  1. Yongqiang Yu
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wen Zhang
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yao Huang
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wen Zhang.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Table S1

Description of Agro-Ecological Zones in China (DOCX 26 kb)

Fig S2

The dynamics of climatic factors in different climatic scenarios from 2011 to 2050 (DOCX 145 kb)

Fig. S3

Temporal changes in the projected rice yields in various management and climate change scenarios in the next four decades. The baseline value is the average rice yield in S0 in the 2000s. The expected yields of (a) early rice in A2; (b) late rice in A2; (c) single rice in A2; (d) area-weighted rice in A2; (e) early rice in B2; (f) late rice in B2; (g) single rice in B2; and (h) area-weighted rice in B2 are based on the cultivated areas of each type of rice in 2010 (DOCX 515 kb)

Fig. S4

Temporal changes in the projected rice yields in various management scenarios in the next four decades. The baseline value is the average rice yield in S0 in the 2000s. The expected yields of (a) early rice; (b) late rice; (c) single rice; and (d) area-weighted rice are based on the cultivated areas of each type of rice in 2010 (DOCX 134 kb)

Fig. S5

Predicted rice yield changes and variations in the next four decades in different scenarios. The error bars represent the standard deviation of the yield in a given scenario for a given decade. The expected yields of (a) early rice; (b) late rice; (c) single rice; and (d) area-weighted rice are based on the cultivated areas of each type of rice in 2010 (DOCX 92 kb)

Fig. S6

Reduced growth duration in constant thermal time scenarios (S1 and S3) compared with that of the baseline scenario (S0). VG is the vegetative growth phase (from transplanting to heading), and RG is the reproductive growth phase (from heading to harvesting) (DOCX 579 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yu, Y., Zhang, W. & Huang, Y. Impact assessment of climate change, carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China. Climatic Change 124, 763–775 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1129-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1129-9

Keywords