Abstract
Records of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in the USA typically begin in the mid-20th century and are insufficiently long to fully understand the natural range of TCP variability. In southeastern North Carolina, USA, we use longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) latewood chronologies from two study sites and a combined chronology as a proxy for TCP during AD 1771–2014 as the latewood growth period of June 1st–October 15th coincides with 93 % of annual TCP. We correlate latewood radial growth with TCP based on days when tropical cyclones tracked within a 223 km rain field, with the results (r = 0.71, p < 0.01) supporting the viability of this species to chronicle interannual variations in TCP for multiple centuries. Using annual latewood data during 1953–2014, we reconstruct TCP back to 1836 for the combined chronology. We creat three radial-growth groups (low, near-average, high) and find that corresponding TCP values are significantly different (p < 0.05) between groups. Low radial-growth values are a strong marker (91 % occurrence) of below-average TCP years and high radial-growth years are (73 % occurrence) also good indicators of above-average TCP years. Examination of the temporal occurrence of below- and above-average TCP years into the late 18th century indicate that a predominance of below-average TCP years occur from 1815 to 1876 that are unmatched in the historic record. The high fidelity between longleaf pine latewood growth and TCP coupled with the geographic distribution of the species throughout the southeastern USA where tropical cyclones are common suggest the utility of this species to help better understand the temporal variability of precipitation delivered via tropical cyclones.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abramson DM (2012) Hurricane Sandy: lessons learned, again. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 6:328–329
Alexander MA, Kilbourne KH, Nye JA (2014) Climate variability during warm and cold phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) 1871–2008. J Mar Syst 133:14–26
Bales JD (2003) Effects of Hurricane Floyd inland flooding, September–October 1999, on tributaries to Pamlico Sound, North Carolina. Estuaries 26:1319–1328
Barnes J (2001) North Carolina’s hurricane history. University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill, 319 pp
Brun J, Barros AP (2013) Mapping the role of tropical cyclones on the hydroclimate of the southeast United States: 2002–2011. Int J Climatol 34:494–517
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2013) Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy – October – November 2012. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 62:393–397
Chang EKM, Guo Y (2007) Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of satellite observations? Geophys Res Lett 34: L14801, doi: 101029/2007GL030169
Chapman HH (1932) Some further relations of fire to longleaf pine. J For 30:602–604
Cook ER, Holmes RL (1997) Guide for computer program ARSTAN. In: Holmes RL et al. (eds) Tree-ring chronologies of western North America: California, eastern Oregon and northern Great Basin. Lab. of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, pp. 50–65
Cook ER, Peters K (1981) The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring width series for dendroclimatic studies. Tree-Ring Bull 41:45–53
Cry GW (1967) Effects of tropical cyclone rainfall on the distribution of precipitation over the eastern and southern United States. Prof Pap Environ Sci Serv no 1, p.66
Devall MS, Grender JM, Koretz J (1991) Dendroecological analysis of a longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) forest in Mississippi. Vegetatio 93:1–8
Donnelly JP et al. (2001) 700-year sedimentary record of intense hurricane landfalls in southern New England. GSA Bull 113:714–727
Doyle TW, Gorham LE (1996) Detecting hurricane impact and recovery from tree rings. In: Dean JS, Meko DM, Swetnam TW (eds) Tree Rings, Environment, and Humanity. Radiocarbon, Tucson, AZ, pp. 405–412
Elsner JB, Kara AB (1999) Hurricanes of the north Atlantic. Oxford University Press, 488 pp
Elsner JB, Liu K-B, Kocher B (2000) Spatial variations in major U.S. hurricane activity: statistics and a physical mechanism. J Clim 13:2293–2305
Elsner JB, Jagger TH, Liu K-B (2008) Comparison of hurricane return levels using historical and geological records. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:368–374
Foster TE, Brooks JR (2001) Long-term trends in growth of Pinus palustris and Pinus elliottii along a hydrological gradient in central Florida. Can J For Res 31:1661–1670
Frappier AB, Sahagian D, Carpenter SJ, Gonzalez LA, Frappier BR (2007) Stalagmite stable isotope record of recent tropical cyclone events. Geology 35:111–114
Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London, 567 pp
Gentry CM (2008) Analyzing the effect of hurricanes on structure and growth in southeast Texas forests. Indiana State University, Ph.D. dissertation, 255 pp
Gentry CM, Lewis D, Speer JH (2010) Dendroecology of hurricanes and the potential for isotopic reconstructions in southeastern Texas. In: Stoffel M et al. (eds) Tree Rings and Natural Hazards. Springer-Science, pp. 309–319
Glenn DA, Mayes DO (2009) Reconstructing 19th century Atlantic Basin hurricanes at differing spatial scales. In: Dupigny-Giroux L-A, Mock CJ (eds) Historical climate variability and impacts in North America. Springer-Science, pp. 79–97
Gray ST, Graumlich LJ, Betancourt JL, Pederson GT (2004) A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation since 1567 AD. Geophys Res Lett 31(12)
Grissino-Mayer HD (2001) Evaluating crossdating accuracy: a manual and tutorial for the computer program COFECHA. Tree-Ring Res 57:205–221
Grissino-Mayer HD, Miller DL, Mora CI (2010) Dendrotempestology and the isotopic record of tropical cyclones in tree rings of the southeastern United States. In: Stoffel M et al. (eds) Tree Rings and Natural Hazards. Springer-Science, pp. 291–303
Guevara-Murua A, Hendy EJ, Rust AC, Cashman KV (2015) Consistent decrease in north Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency following major volcanic eruptions in the last 3 centuries. Geophys Res Lett 42. doi:10.1002/2015GL066154
Hall T, Hereid K (2015) The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts. Geophys Res Lett 42:3482–3485
Henderson JP (2006) Dendroclimatological analysis and fire history of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, p. 485
Henderson JP, Grissino-Mayer HD (2009) Climate-tree growth relationships of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) in the southeastern coastal plain, USA. Dendrochronologia 27:31–43
Heyward F (1933) The root system of longleaf pine on the deep sands of western Florida. Ecology 14:136–148
Holmes RL (1983) Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bulletin 43:69–78
Hudgins JE (2000) Tropical cyclones affecting North Carolina since 1586-an historical perspective. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS ER-92:108 pp
Johnson SR, Young DR (1992) Variation in tree-ring width in relation to storm activity for mid-Atlantic barrier island populations of Pinus taeda. J Coast Res 8:99–104
Kam JH, Sheffield J, Yuan X, Wood EF (2013) The influence of Atlantic tropical cyclones on drought over the eastern United States (1980–2007). J Clim 26:3067–3086
Keim BD, Muller RA, Stone GW (2007) Spatiotemporal patterns and return periods of tropical storm and hurricane strikes from Texas to Maine. J Clim 20:3498–3509
Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone best track data. B Am Meteorol Soc 91:363–376
Knight DB, Davis RE (2007) Climatology of tropical cyclone rainfall in the southeastern United States. Phys Geogr 28:126–147
Labotka DM, Grissino-Mayer HD, Mora CI, Johnson EJ (2015) Patterns of moisture source and climate variability in the southeastern United States: a four-century seasonally resolved tree-ring oxygen-isotope record. Clim Dyn 1-10. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2694-y
Landers JL (1991) Disturbance influences on pine traits in the southeastern United States. Tall Timbers Fire Ecol Conf 17:61–98
Landsea CW (2007) Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back in time. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 88:197–203
Latimer SD, Devall MS, Thomas C, Ellgaard EF, Kumar SD, Thien LB (1996) Dendrochronology and heavy metal deposition in tree rings of baldcypress. J Environ Qual 25:1411–1419
Lide RF, Meentemeyer VG, Pinder III JE, Beatty LM (1995) Hydrology of a Carolina bay located on upper coastal plain of western South Carolina. Wetlands 15:47–57
Liu K-B, Fearn ML (1993) Lake-sediment record of late Holocene hurricane activities from coastal Alabama. Geology 21:793–796
Liu K-B, Fearn ML (2000) Reconstruction of prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes in northwestern Florida from lake sediments record. Quant Res 54:238–245
Lodewick JE (1930) Effect of certain climatic factors on the diameter growth of longleaf pine in western Florida. J Agric Res 41:349–363
Manabe D, Kawakatsu K (1968) Chronological investigations on the annual ring and typhonic patterns of the Yakushima cedar. Reports of the Kyushu University of Forestry 22:127–165
Mann ME, Sabbatellis TA, Neu U (2007) Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. Geophys Res Lett 34:L22707, doi:10:1029/2007/GL031781.
Matyas CJ (2010) Associations between the size of hurricane rain fields at landfall and their surrounding environments. Meteorol Atmos Phys 106:135–148
Maxwell JT, Soulé PT, Ortegren JT, Knapp PA (2012) Drought-busting tropical cyclones in the southeastern Atlantic United States: 1950-2008. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 102:259–275
Maxwell JT, Ortegren JT, Knapp PA, Soulé PT (2013) Tropical cyclones and drought amelioration in the gulf and southeastern coastal United States. J Clim 26:8440–8452
Meldahl RS, Pederson N, Kush JS, Varner III JM (1999) Dendrochronological investigations of climate and competitive effects on longleaf pine growth. In R. Wimmer and R E Vetter (eds.) Tree-ring Analysis: Biological, Methodological and Environmental Aspects. CABI Publishing, Wallingford, UK, pp. 265–285
Miller DL (2005) A tree-ring oxygen isotope record of tropical cyclone activity, moisture stress, and long-term climate oscillations for the southeastern U.S. Dissertation. University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Miller DL, Mora CI, Grissino-Mayer HD, Mock CJ, Uhle ME, Sharp Z (2006) Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity. PNAS 103:4294–14297
Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1971) Riverflow forecasting through conceptual models. 1, A discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10:282–290
Nogueira RC, Keim BD (2010) Annual volume and area variations in tropical cyclone rainfall over the eastern United States. J Clim 23:4363–4374
Nogueira RC, Keim BD (2011) Contributions of Atlantic tropical cyclones to monthly and seasonal rainfall in the eastern United States 1960–2007. Theor Appl Climatol 103:213–227
NRCS (2015) National Resources Conservation Service, web soil survey for Carteret and Jones County, North Carolina, USA. Available online at: http://websoilsurvey.nrcs.usda.gov/app/WebSoilSurvey.aspx
Nyberg J, Malmgren BA, Winter A, Jury MR, Halimeda Kilbourne K, Quinn TM (2007) Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years. Nature 447:698–701
Ortegren JT, Maxwell JT (2014) Characteristics of the interaction between droughts and tropical cyclones in the southeastern U.S. Geogr Compass 8(8):540–559
Outcalt KW (2008) Lightning, fire and longleaf pine: using natural disturbance to guide management. For Ecol Manag 255:3351–3359
Parker AJ, Parker KC, McCay DH (2001) Disturbance-mediated variation in stand structure between varieties of Pinus clausa (sand pine). Ann Assoc Am Geogr 91:28–47
Pillow MY (1931) Compression wood records hurricane. J For 29:575–578
Platt WJ, Evans GW, Rathbun SL (1988) The population dynamics of a long-lived conifer (Pinus palustris). Am Nat 131:491–525
Prat OP, Nelson BR (2013) Precipitation contribution of tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States from 1998 to 2009 using TRMM satellite data. J Clim 26:1047–1062
Provencher L et al. (2001) Restoration fire and hurricanes in longleaf pine sandhills. Ecol Restor 19:92–98
Rodgers JC, Gamble DW, McCay DH, Phipps S (2006) Tropical cyclone signals with tree-ring chronologies from weeks bay national estuary and research reserve, Alabama. J Coastal Res 22:1320–1329
Schreck CJ, Knapp KR, Kossin JP (2014) The impact of best track discrepancies on global tropical cyclone climatologies using IBTrACS. Mon Weather Rev 142:3881–3899
Speer JH (2010) Fundamentals of tree-ring research. University of Arizona Press, 369 pp
Stokes MA, Smiley TL (1968) An Introduction to Tree-Ring Research. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp 73
Sugg AL (1968) Beneficial aspects of the tropical cyclone. J Appl Meteor 7:39–45
Swetnam TW, Thompson MA, Kennedy Sutherland E (1985) Using dendrochronology to measure radial growth of defoliated trees. United States Forest Service Agriculture Handbook no. 639. pp 1–39
Vecchi GA, Knutson TR (2007) On estimates of historical north Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 21:3585–3600
Voor Tech Consulting (2008) Measurement:J2X
Walls SC, Barichivich WJ, Brown ME (2013) Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate. Biology 1:399–418
Wigley T, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average value of correlated time series with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:2013–2213
Yamaguchi D (1991) A simple method for cross-dating increment cores from living trees. Can J For Res 21:414–416
Zhu L, Quiring SM (2013) Variations in tropical cyclone precipitation in Texas (1950 to 2009). J Geophys Res Atmos 118:3085–3096
Acknowledgments
We thank Barry Keim and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions and Thomas Patterson for assistance with data collection and processing. This project was partially supported by funding from UNCG’s Faculty First program.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Figure S1
Location of study sites (circles), weather stations (squares), and tropical cyclone rain field (gray shaded) for MRL. Geographic range of longleaf pine is shown in green. (JPEG 46 kb)
Figure S2
Old-growth longleaf pine-wiregrass savanna at site MRL in Croatan National Forest, North Carolina, USA. Note the crown-shaped topography of this Carolina bay ridge, with slightly higher elevations in the center and decreasing toward the edges where the longleaf pine dominance yields to pocosin (evergreen-shrub bog). (JPEG 125 kb)
Table S1
(DOCX 13 kb)
Table S2
(DOCX 15 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Knapp, P.A., Maxwell, J.T. & Soulé, P.T. Tropical cyclone rainfall variability in coastal North Carolina derived from longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.): AD 1771–2014. Climatic Change 135, 311–323 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1560-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1560-6