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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L22505, doi:10.1029/2007GL031648, 2007

An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models

William M. Connolley

British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK


Thomas J. Bracegirdle

British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK


Abstract

We assess 19 coupled models from the IPCC fourth assessment report archive from the simulation of the 20th century, based on the calculation of “skill scores.” The models show a wide range of scores when assessed against Antarctic or global measures of large-scale circulation indices. Except for continental mass balance, the model average proves a more reliable estimate than that for any one model. Individual models show a very wide scatter in simulated Antarctic temperature trends over the past century; the large trend over the Antarctic peninsula in winter is not well represented, which makes it clear that whatever has been driving these trends is not well captured by many GCMs. Trends in temperature are clearly linked to the sea ice simulation, another variable that most models do not simulate well.

Received 10 August 2007; accepted 16 October 2007; published 29 November 2007.

Keywords: Antarctic; model; assessment.

Index Terms: 9310 Geographic Location: Antarctica (4207); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 3349 Atmospheric Processes: Polar meteorology; 3394 Atmospheric Processes: Instruments and techniques.

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Citation: Connolley, W. M., and T. J. Bracegirdle (2007), An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22505, doi:10.1029/2007GL031648.