Buddleia davidii is a weed naturalized in New Zealand. It invades radiata pine plantations and causes major growth reduction and economic losses. Modelling its germination for predicting its occurrence will help foresters minimise its influence in forest plantations. Germination experiments have been carried out in laboratory to assess the influence of seed origin, defoliation, temperature and water stress on germination. Defoliation treatments did not significantly affect germination. The pattern of germination for seeds from four different places within New Zealand revealed so little difference that there is no need to define different models according to the site considered. However this similarity in germination pattern is limited to New Zealand and cannot be generalised to other countries where germination appears to be significantly different. The germination of Buddleia davidii seed appeared to be a function of hydrothermal time. The base, optimum and ceiling temperatures for Buddleia are respectively 9, 25 and from 30 to 35?, and Buddleia seed germinate between 0 and approximately -6 bars. In constant conditions, the predicted germination for Buddleia davidii with the thermal time model was limited to sub-optimal temperatures and the hydrotime and hydrothermal time models described well the germination pattern at any temperature and water potential. The modified hydrothermal time model proposed by Alvarado and Bradford (2002) most accurately predicted germination although it tended to overestimate the asymptotes. Overall the hydrothermal time model allowed prediction of actual timing of germination with much accuracy. This threshold model can therefore be used for modelling the germination of Buddleia davidii subjected to constant temperature and water potential conditions.