Application of spatial regression to investigate current patterns of crime in the north of Portugal

Abstract

Crime is one of the main problems of societies. However, research on this phenomenon has not yet reached a consensus on what factors influence the variability of crime rates and how it positions itself and acts in space. This work aims to contribute to a greater understanding of crime in the north of Portugal by investigating demographic and socioeconomic factors that may be associated with it. We explore the use of spatial statistics techniques through a detailed exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) first, and the application of regression models (Ordinary Least Squares and GWR – Geographically Weighted Regression) afterwards. The results show a crime hotspot on the coastline, and spatial homogeneity of low values between central-south municipalities. Crime patterns might be explained by population density, distance to the district capital and beneficiaries of Social Integration Income, who are individuals without socioeconomic conditions that need financial assistance from the Portuguese Government. However, predictions based on a GWR model with these factors may not be appropriate, given the limitations of this technique.