Minister Turnover, Critical Events, and the Electoral Calendar in Presidential Democracies

Abstract

Under what conditions should presidents reshuffle the cabinet in response to critical events? We propose a model that underscores the interplay of political shocks, the electoral calendar, and constitutional term limits to explain cabinet turnover in presidential regimes. Our theory indicates that mass protests and media scandals represent critical events with different political dynamics. While presidents seeking reelection may choose to protect activist ministers in order to deliver successful policy outcomes, there is little to be gained in the long run from recurrent scandals. However, presidents discount long-term goals when elections are close and when they initiate a lame-duck period. We test those predictions using survival analysis with an original data set for 12 Latin American democracies between 1978 and 2007.