EKONOMETRYCZNE MODELE PRZESTĘPCZOŚCI
Date
2003
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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
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ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY
Abstract
This paper analyzes economic factors of criminal activity, some prominence is also given
to certain legal and sociological aspects.
The presented results to a large extent conform to the model created by P. Fajzynbler, D.
Lederman and H. Loayza. The phenomenon of criminal activity can be precisely described in
a formalized, model-like manner. Empirical verification of the model indicates that criminal
activity is to a large extent motivated by economic factors and can be explained in terms of
decisions based on the analysis of costs and profits to be derived from criminal actions. Therefore,
the phenomenon of criminal activity is not merely an outcome of low moral standards of individual persons from the dregs of the society. This statement has been verified by the data
not only from Poland but also other countries. However, it is not to provide a ready-made
excuse for criminal activity but rather a hint for the national policy makers showing how to
eliminate the broadly understood “chances”
The verification of the model displays to what extent criminal activity can be reduced
while improving the law enforcement rate. The research also indicates that the focus on economic
growth, bridging the income gap, decreasing alcohol consumption and reduction of
unemployment can to a large extent counteract the persistence of criminal activity.
It should be not that in Poland criminal activity is tightly interconnected with unemployment.
One percentage point higher in the unemployment rate has caused the increase in the
criminal activity rate by as much as 2.8%. This figure serves as yet another case for fighting
unemployment.
The level of income earned by the population can impact the criminal activity rate either
negatively or positively. By 1900 the beneficial negative impact prevailed, however after 1990
the income rate has been stimulating criminal activity, which goes on to prove that system
transformation has come at a price.
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Citation
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 65, 2003, z. 3, s. 127-143