Is the U.S. Fed voting record informative about future monetary policy?

0388300 - NHU-C 2013 RIV CZ eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Horváth, R. - Šmídková, K. - Zápal, Jan
Is the U.S. Fed voting record informative about future monetary policy?
Finance a úvěr-Czech Journal of Economics and Finance. Roč. 62, č. 6 (2012), s. 478-484. ISSN 0015-1920. E-ISSN 0015-1920
Institucionální podpora: PRVOUK-P23
Klíčová slova: monetary policy * voting record * transparency
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie
Impakt faktor: 0.340, rok: 2012
http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1259_478-484_---horvath.pdf

We examine the information content of U.S. Fed voting records under the Greenspan chairmanship. We find that the voting records of FOMC members, as captured by the difference between the average voted-for and actually implemented policy rate, signal the future course of monetary policy. The committee bias, an official statement on how the Fed is leaning in terms of its next interest rate move, is found to improve monetary policy predictability, too. On the other hand, the voting of alternate members, who actively contribute to the discussions at the monetary policy meetings but whose votes do not count for setting the interest rate, does not have predictive power and is more in line with that of the chairman.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0217154