What the Data Say about the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic?

0395368 - ÚTIA 2014 CZ eng V - Výzkumná zpráva
Baxa, Jaromír
What the Data Say about the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic?.
Praha: ÚTIA AV ČR, 2013. 16 s. Research report, 2331.
Grant CEP: GA ČR GA402/09/0965
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985556
Klíčová slova: fiscal policy * vector autoregression
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie

In this paper, we provide the estimates of the fiscal multiplier in the Czech economy, based on the methodology of the fiscal VAR. The basic idea, adding fiscal variables into the macroeconomic VAR model, follows Blanchard and Perotti (2002). For estimation of our model, we utilize the dataset with quarterly data on a sample from the first quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 2009. Our main results are as follows. Firstly, government expenditures have a positive and significant impact on the GDP. By contrast, a response of GDP on a shock to government revenues is slightly negative and in most specifications not significant. Secondly, these results are robust to various sensitivity checks. Consequently, the restoration of sustainable fiscal policy should focus rather on the revenues side than in the government expenditures, since a significant cut in government spending would probably have slowed down economic growth. Finally, we should note, that uncertainty connected with our results is large, namely in comparison with existing studies on the effects of monetary policy.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0223484