Modeling Guatemala

0426516 - NHÚ 2014 RIV CZ eng V - Výzkumná zpráva
Cincibuch, M. - Kejak, Michal - Vávra, D. - Auda, O. - Aslanyan, Gurgen - Bečičková, H. - Daniš, P. - Hřebíček, H. - Janjgava, Batlome - Kacer, R. - Kameník, O. - Konopecký, F. - Lamazoshvili, Beka - Lukáč, J. - Menkyna, Robert - Mirzoyan, Armen - Motl, T. - Musil, K. - Plotnikov, S. - Rasulova, Khanifakhon - Remo, A. - Vlček, J.
Modeling Guatemala.
Prague: OGResearch, 2012. 93 s.
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) LF11018
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985998
Klíčová slova: Guatemala * forecasting and policy analysis system
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie

The report consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the December 2009 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of model’s variables in terms of the model shocks. Important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic history of Guatemala. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the nearterm forecasting concludes. Chapter 2 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed using both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons with the random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter provides an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232224