Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in mountain regions of Europe based on ENSEMBLES regional climate models

0431798 - ÚFA 2015 eng A - Abstrakt
Kyselý, Jan - Gaál, Ladislav - Beranová, Romana
Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in mountain regions of Europe based on ENSEMBLES regional climate models.
32nd International Conference on Alpine Meteorology : Book of Abstracts. Ljubljana: Ministrstvo za kmetijstvo in okolje, 2013. s. 26. ISBN 978-961-6024-60-0.
[International Conference on Alpine Meteorology /32./. 03.06.2013–07.06.2013, Kranjska Gora]
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
http://meteo.fmf.uni-lj.si/sites/default/files/ICAM2013_Book_of_abstracts.pdf

Mountain regions and areas with complex orography are particularly prone to heavy precipitation and floods, and uncertainties in possible changes associated with climate change may be enhanced due to complexity of interactions between orography, atmospheric circulation, and local processes. The study examines possible changes in high quantiles of precipitation amounts in scenarios of late 21st century climate in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations over Europe from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project. The RCMs have a resolution around 25 km and are driven by several global climate models. The projected changes are evaluated in winter and summer seasons, and on a wide range of time scales from hourly to multi-day amounts. The region-of-influence method is applied as a pooling scheme when estimating distributions of seasonal maxima of precipitation, which leads to spatial patterns of high quantiles that are smoothed compared to local analysis. We focus on a comparison of results (scenarios) for several mountain and lowland regions of Europe, and evaluate altitudinal dependence of the projected changes of precipitation extremes.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0236354