Development of the Representative Climate Change Scenarios for Czechia

0508565 - ÚFA 2020 DE eng A - Abstrakt
Dubrovský, Martin - Skalák, P. - Štěpánek, P. - Meitner, J. - Lhotka, Ondřej - Trnka, M. - Zahradníček, P.
Development of the Representative Climate Change Scenarios for Czechia.
EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 16. Berlin: European Meteorological Society, 2019.
[EMS Annual Meeting 2019. 09.09.2019-13.09.2019, Copenhagen]
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: climate change * regional climate model * climate change scenarios
Obor OECD: Climatic research
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2019/EMS2019-837.pdf

For use in climate change (CC) impact studies, one (or both) of the two datasets are commonly employed: (a)
an ensemble of GCM simulations available from the CMIP5 dataset, and (b) an ensemble of RCM simulations
available from the CORDEX dataset. In both cases, questions may arise, how to deal with a large number of
available simulations: Should we use all simulations or only some of them? Should we assign weights to the
models? If it is not possible (or we simply do not want) to use all available simulations, how to choose a limited
representative subset of models? This contribution is a report on our effort in preparing CC scenarios for use in
Czech CC adaptation studies made within the frame of SustES project. Both CMIP5 and CORDEX datasets have
been considerd in preparing our CC scenarios. The contribution consists of two parts.
In the first part, we present a moethodology, which is used to choose a representative subset of GCMs
from all available GCMs. The methodology is a modification of the methodology developed by Dubrovsky et al
(2015, Climatic Change). In selecting a subset, following criterions were taken into account: (1) availability of
both monthly and daily time series of following suface weather variables: temperature (daily averages, minima and
maxima), precipitation, solar radiation, humidity and wind speed. (2) Quality of the GCM simulations represented
by partial skill scores quatifying the GCMs’ performance in reproducing annual cycle and spatial distribution of
temperature and precipitation including their links to a larger-scale atmospheric circulation. (3) Ability of the
subset to represent the mean and inter-model variability of CC scenarios in the whole GCM ensemble. (4) The
fact, whether the given GCM was or was not involved in the CORDEX simulations. While accounting for all
these criterions, the whole process leading to creating the final subset emerged as a mixture of objective (based on
quantitative indicators) and subjectiove decisions.
In the second part, the CC scenarios derived from the GCMs (both the complete set and representative
subset) will be presented and compared with CC scenarios derived from the RCMs; the development of the
RCM-based CC scenarios is discussed in a separate contribution (Skalak et al., poster no. EMS2019-646).
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0299433