Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

0509316 - ÚVGZ 2020 RIV US eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Trnka, Miroslav - Feng, S. - Semenov, M. A. - Olesen, J. E. - Kersebaum, K. C. - Rötter, R. P. - Semerádová, Daniela - Klem, Karel - Huang, W. - Ruiz-Ramos, M. - Hlavinka, Petr - Meitner, Jan - Balek, Jan - Havlík, P. - Büntgen, Ulf
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas.
Science Advances. Roč. 5, č. 9 (2019), č. článku eaau2406. ISSN 2375-2548. E-ISSN 2375-2548
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) EF16_019/0000797
Výzkumná infrastruktura: CzeCOS II - 90061
Institucionální podpora: RVO:86652079
Klíčová slova: Food supply * Climate change mitigation * Food security * Future assessment * Future climate * Occurrence probability * Producing areas * Water scarcity * Global warming
Obor OECD: Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection
Impakt faktor: 13.117, rok: 2019
Způsob publikování: Open access
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/9/eaau2406.full.pdf

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0300062