Modelagem e simulação do desenvolvimento temporal e espacial da ferrugem asiática da soja por meio de equações diferenciais e lógica fuzzy
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Data
2021-09-10
Autores
Zagui, Nayara Longo Sartor
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
O Mato Grosso é o maior produtor de soja do país. A Ferrugem Asiática da Soja é uma doença que já causou muitos prejuízos ao agronegócio brasileiro. A planta amadurece precocemente, atrapalhando o enchimento da vagem, diminuindo drasticamente a produtividade. É causada pelo fungo Phakopsora pachyrhizi. Para que uma doença de planta se estabeleça, é necessário a presença de patógeno, de planta suscetível e de condições ambientais favoráveis. Nesta pesquisa foi desenvolvido um sistema fuzzy reunindo essas três variáveis como entradas, tendo como saída a vulnerabilidade da região à doença. A presença de patógeno foi medida por meio de uma equação difusão-advecção adequada ao problema. Alguns coeficientes basearam-se na literatura, outros foram inferidos por sistema fuzzy e outros obtidos por dados reais. A partir do mapeamento das propriedades produtoras, foram estabelecidas as localidades onde existem plantas susceptíveis. As condições ambientais favoráveis, foram obtidas também a partir de sistema fuzzy, cujas entradas eram temperatura e molhamento foliar. Dados disponibilizados pelo IBGE, INMET e Consórcio Antiferrugem foram utilizados para abastecer o modelo, e todos os tratamentos, testes e simulações foram efetuadas dentro do ambiente Matlab. Embora a doença escolhida seja a ferrugem asiática da soja, o modelo teve caráter generalista, de forma que poderia ser reproduzido para qualquer enfermidade de planta de mesmo perfil.
Mato Grosso is the largest soy producer in the country. And Asian Soy Rust is a disease that has already caused a lot of damage to Brazilian agribusiness. The plant matures prematurely, hindering the filling of the pod, drastically reducing productivity. It is caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi. For a plant disease to establish itself, the presence of a pathogen, a susceptible plant, and favorable environmental conditions are necessary. This research developed a fuzzy system gathering these three variables as inputs, having as output the vulnerability of the region to the disease. The presence of the pathogen was measured using a diffusion-advection equation appropriate to the problem. Some coefficients were based on the literature, others were measured by a fuzzy system and others were obtained by real data. From the mapping of producing properties, the locations where there are susceptible plants were established. And the favorable environmental conditions were also obtained from a fuzzy system, whose inputs were temperature and leaf wetness. Data provided by IBGE, INMET, and Consortium Antirust were used to fuel the model, and all treatments, tests, and simulations were carried out within the MatLab® environment. Although the disease chosen as Asian soybean rust, the model was general in nature, so that it could be reproduced for any disease of plant with the same profile.
Mato Grosso is the largest soy producer in the country. And Asian Soy Rust is a disease that has already caused a lot of damage to Brazilian agribusiness. The plant matures prematurely, hindering the filling of the pod, drastically reducing productivity. It is caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi. For a plant disease to establish itself, the presence of a pathogen, a susceptible plant, and favorable environmental conditions are necessary. This research developed a fuzzy system gathering these three variables as inputs, having as output the vulnerability of the region to the disease. The presence of the pathogen was measured using a diffusion-advection equation appropriate to the problem. Some coefficients were based on the literature, others were measured by a fuzzy system and others were obtained by real data. From the mapping of producing properties, the locations where there are susceptible plants were established. And the favorable environmental conditions were also obtained from a fuzzy system, whose inputs were temperature and leaf wetness. Data provided by IBGE, INMET, and Consortium Antirust were used to fuel the model, and all treatments, tests, and simulations were carried out within the MatLab® environment. Although the disease chosen as Asian soybean rust, the model was general in nature, so that it could be reproduced for any disease of plant with the same profile.
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Palavras-chave
Lógica fuzzy, Equações diferenciais parciais, Ferrugem asiática da soja, Fuzzy logic, Partial differencial equations, Asian soybean rust