Otoyol gereksinim araştırmasında yöntem ve zamanın parasal değeri (Çanakkale Boğaz geçişi)

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Tarih
1995
Yazarlar
Azazi, Sedat
Süreli Yayın başlığı
Süreli Yayın ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayınevi
Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Özet
Otoyol yatırımları pahalı fakat vazgeçilemeyen yatı rımlardır. Kıt kaynaklarla optimal çözümlerin bulunabil mesi için tasarlanan yatırımın faydalarının en maliyetle rinin incelenip, ekonomik doğrulamasının yapılması gere-' kir. Tezin amacı "Dtoyol Gereksinim Araştırması" nda yön tem analizidir. Giriş bölümünde otoyolların özellikleri, gelişmeleri ve yapılış amaçları ile ilgili olarak kısaca bilgi verile rek yöntem analizinde altyapı oluşturulmaya ve Türkiye'nin bu hizmet sektöründeki konumunun anlaşılmasına çalışılmış tır. Bilindiği gibi Türkiye'de "Karayolları Genel Müdürlü- ğü"nde ABD'den uyarlanan"AASHD" standartları kullanılmak tadır. II. Bölüm'de ABD'de yol gereksinim araştarmasının nasıl yapıldığı detaylı olarak incelenmiştir. Ayrıca makro düzeyde araştırmalarda yol yatırımlarının finans miktarı tahmininde ekonomistlerce kullanılan "Yatırım Ana lizi Yaklaşımı" özetlenmiştir. II. Bölüm'ün sonunda ge lişmiş ülkelerden İngiltere'de yapılmış bir etüt örneği verilmiştir. III. Bölüm'de Türkiye'de uygulanan yöntem örneği ola rak 199A- yılı Şubat ayında tamamlanan "Çanakkale Boğaz Geçişi Fizibilite Etüdü" alınmış; rapor özetlendikten son ra değerlendirilmeye çalışılmıştır. IV. Bölüm'de "Ulaştırma Sektörü'nde özellikle fayda analizinde en önemli problemlerden biri olan "Zamanın Pa rasal Değeri" ile ilgili olarak Boğaziçi Üniversitesi ta rafından hazırlanan rapor kısaca özetlenip, raporda öneri len yöntem "Çanakkale Boğaz Geçişi" ekonomik değerlendir mesinde uygulanmıştır.
Motorway investments have an important place in budgets almost in all countries. The Average kilometer cost of a motorway is about 5/^10 millions dollars. It's not easy to finance such a project for a long time. Therefore motor way's necessity has to be shown and both public opinion and decision makers have to be convinced. The consideration of building highways in a more eco nomic way has begun around 1 97G.v 1975 in Turkey. The axle load was 8 tons until 1980, then it was increased to 10 tons and filially to 13 tons. After that roads were damaged and physical defici encies occured in a short time. Therefore dual carriageways were begun to be built against both the physical deficiencies and the increasing travel demands. However dual carriageways did not have control of access and they could not carry the traffic adequately. This resulted in the building of motorways. The purpose of this thesis is: To explain the method of "Motorway Needs Study in Turkey", comparing other countries's needs studies with Turkey's and to confirm the monetary value of time in transportation for economic evaluation. In the first chapter, the differences between motor ways and divided roads are explaimed and the goals of building motorways are discussed. Also the benefits of a motorway investment and the methods of investment eva luation (Internal Rate of Return, benefit-cost ratio, net present value, and net benefit-cost ratio) are given to be used in the latter chapters and to present the reader with basic information. In the second chapter, highway needs study method in the LL5.A, is given in detail as a sample. It is known that standarts used in "T.C. Karayolları Genel Md." are the appropriation of the standarts in "American Association Standarts of Highway Official" according to Turkey's circumstances. After this a method which is used by economists in the finance analysis in highway investmentsf is affered. This method is called "İnvest- mentAnalysis Approach" It4s simple and useful in esti mating the money required for future needs. Provided that the road life study datas can be obtained regularly. It is twice as likely for the method to be succesf ul* v., At the end of the second chapter two examples from a motorway needs study are given» This study had been dane in England, Numerical solutions of benefit analysis and economic evaluations are also presented. The method's application in Turkey "Çanakkale Bosphorus Crossing Feasibility Refort" is summarized in the third chapter as a sample. The report was prepared by Brown Beech * Botek in 1994, "Çanakkale Bosphorus Crossing Feasibility Report" consists of six sections: * Rival transport systems * National and regional economy * Estimates: Economical growing and traffic compozition * Ferry and bridge operating costs * Economic evaluation Rival transport systems are ferries (Çanakkale-Ecea- bat, Gelibolu-Lapseki and a private ferry lines). These are the regions which are potential traffic for the bridge: * İstanbul Bosphorus Traffic, * The Marmara Sea Traffic, * Aegean Islands Traffic, * Dardanelles Sea Traffic, XI It is supposed that the whole traffic which carry with ferries will be attracted by the bridge. Vehicle operating costs are examined as vehicle distance costs and vehicle time costs for the ferries and bridge options. Vehicle distance costs include cash payings for main tenance, tires, oil and gasoline. Vehicle time costs include the price of the vehicle, driver's cost, insurance and interest. Passenger time costs are also added to this. Maintenance and operating costs are taken from Istanbul Bosphorus Bridge. After projections about economical parameters and future traffic, economic evaluations are for two alterna tives. One of them is 1450 mt length and the othen is 22DD mt length. Although an alternative bridge (1150 mt length) is mentioned, there are no examinations about it. As a result the bridge 1450 mt length is offered. Finally, in the evaluation of method, deficiencies are obtained as follows: * Traffic observations are not adequate * Alternatives are not evaluated in detail. Especially for the alternative 1550 mt length, there are no any evaluation * Bridges are evaluated alone * Çanakkale and outside of it are famous with their historical and turistic wealths. It is claimed that offering bridge (1450 mt length) would damage the city and it's wealths. These claims shows that there is no adequate connection between decision makers and public opinion. Calculating the monetary value of time is one of the biggest problem in transportation. In the fourth chapter a method of calculating the monetary value of time is presented. Xll This method is developed by Bosphorus University to "Karayolları Genel Md." in May 1976. It is called as "Time Value With, Normal Distribution Hypothesis"* According to the hypothesis, it is supposed the time value is suitable for normal distribution. This can be explained as follows: S ? S /2?X. Çk dz Z = X -X o 6~k B = The rate between the number of users (for the given transportation system) and total number of passengers, X = Time value at present (TL/dak=) X* = Average monetary value of time /T* = Standart deviation Figure 1. Normal Distribution Curve The monetary value of time at present for the alterna tive system (X ) is found, dividing the cost differences to time differences» Xlll X = (Crossing Cost Far Bridge)-(Crossing Cost By Ferry) (Travel Time For Bridge) -(Travel Time By Ferrey) The Z values are found by the normal distribution table according te the rate of preferring alternative transportation system. The equation of X can be written as follows: o X = X - ox. Z o This equation can be thought as "y=a+bx" ; this is simple linear equation» X and Z are constants; % and 6x are also variables. Using the the linear regrassion analysis X and ?fx values are found simply. After this summarization, affered method "Time value with normal distribution hyphotesis" is applied for "Dar danelles Crossing" and economic evaluation is made again. In this application there are no goals of supporting or examining the results of the repot. The purpose is to evaluate only the method. Therefere necessary datas were taken from the report completely the same, However only one of the alternatives (1450 mt length) is evaluated,. as it is shown the most appropriate option. The application includes benefit analysis and economic evaluation. When a new transport system will be applied, it is hoped to be speedy, comfertably and safer, trips. There are no statistical datas about ferry accidents. Resulted with mortal or injury, Therefere in Dardanalles Crossing benefit analysis, there is no saving of travelling safer. The whole benefit analysis is consist of time savings. In the analysis two hyphotesis are applied as they were applied in the report. One of them is traffic level hyphotesis. "A" lower level of traffic and "B" is high level of traffic. The other hyphotesis is about interest rates. One of this hyphotesis is 1 0 percent an the other is 12 percent (annual). However, with and without crossing prices (for the bridge) estimated savings are calculated. xiv There are no istatistical study for the number of vehicles uhich will prefer to bridge crossing. Therefore these rates (in orddr to use them finding "Z" values from the normal distribution table) are received between 75 and 1 QD percent as if they are estimated» The finding monetary time values (Regrassion analysis results) : Idith bridge crossing price Free crossing 3957.2 Tl/min, 4545,34TL/min The results of economic evaluations are shown as follow tables : TABLE 1. Economic Evaluations Idith Generated Traffic A TABLE 2. Economic Evaluations With Generated Traffic B Interest are (96) Savings ($000) Constraction Costs ($000) Net Present Ualue ($000) Rate of Return 10 12 10 12 582931.5 477931.3 492BB2.4 404101.8 249268.0 244640.9 24926B.0 244640.9 333663.5 233290.4 243614.4 159460.9 1,95 1.98 1.65 The results of the difference method are consistent and not much difference according to the report's results.
Açıklama
Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 1995
Anahtar kelimeler
Maliyet analizi, Otoyollar, Ulaştırma yapıları, Ulaşım sistemleri, Çanakkale Boğazı, Cost analysis, Motorways, Transportation structures, Transportation systems, Dardanelles
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