The economic package proposed by the Reagan Administration holds the potential to reverse the widespread deterioration in the economy that has characterized the decade of the seventies. If the bulk of the program is adopted, real growth should average 2 1/2% and inflation should be in the 7% vicinity by 1984. Real growth could be rising by 3 1/2% by 1984 with inflation under 5% if the program is augmented by even further reduction in tax rates and government spending, as well as by a more restrictive monetary policy...All aspects of the Reagan Administration's proposals are important. However, the pivotal factor is the reduction in tax rates rather than the much publicized spending cuts. While failure to cut government spending and regulation could lead to the demise of the economic recovery plan, failure to cut tax rates would lead to its demise. This conclusion is contrary to much of the "conventional wisdom" on the Reagan program and therefore must be supported by empirical analysis. The charts in this report hope to shed some light on historical movements in various tax measures and their relationship to economic performance. While the conclusions are somewhat tentative, there are strong indications that a failure to implement quickly the tax rate