This work analyses the character of the relationship
between copper exports and Chilean economic growth after World War
II. A thorough discussion of qualitative nature both supports the
specifications and definitions of a simultaneous equation econometric
model, and interprets and qualifies the model's results.
Both multiplier analysis and policy simulations support
the view that the relation between primary exports and economic
growth was negative, basically because exports financed imports
competitive with domestic industrial production, a feature whose
negative impact upon growth is rooted in particular economic,
political, institutional and administrative elements of Chilean
society during the relevant period.
At least twice, affected industrial groups favoured
copper export restrictive policies, challenging the ideological and
material foundations of import substitution industrialisation.
These results recommend a careful approach to cross-national,
multi-country studies, and do not support either simplistic neoclassical
models of the relation exports - growth, or naive Chilean versions of
the Latin American theory of 'dependencia'.
Chapter one poses the principal questions, and the order
of presentation of results. Chapter two is a critical survey of
previous contributions, that highlights deficiencies and gaps in the
academic understanding of the problem. Chapter three discusses the
principal factors which ought to be carefully considered in any complete study, or introduced in any relevant econometric model.
Chapter four presents this model, structural equations, multiplier
analysis, and suggestions for further development. Chapter five
deals with policy simulations, and the definition and measurement
of an empirical index of conflict between export-oriented and
industry-oriented growth styles, and discusses historical instances
of industrial support for copper export restrictive policies (an
industry-exports feedback effect working through long range political
decisions, beyond the limits of the econometric model). Chapter six
is the summary and conclusions of the work. Other material is
presented in several appendices.
This work analyses the character of the relationship
between copper exports and Chilean economic growth after World War
II. A thorough discussion of qualitative nature both supports the
specifications and definitions of a simultaneous equation econometric
model, and interprets and qualifies the model's results.
Both multiplier analysis and policy simulations support
the view that the relation between primary exports and economic
growth was negative, basically because exports financed imports
competitive with domestic industrial production, a feature whose
negative impact upon growth is rooted in particular economic,
political, institutional and administrative elements of Chilean
society during the relevant period.
At least twice, affected industrial groups favoured
copper export restrictive policies, challenging the ideological and
material foundations of import substitution industrialisation.
These results recommend a careful approach to cross-national,
multi-country studies, and do not support either simplistic neoclassical
models of the relation exports - growth, or naive Chilean versions of
the Latin American theory of 'dependencia'.
Chapter one poses the principal questions, and the order
of presentation of results. Chapter two is a critical survey of
previous contributions, that highlights deficiencies and gaps in the
academic understanding of the problem. Chapter three discusses the
principal factors which ought to be carefully considered in any
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complete study, or introduced in any relevant econometric model.
Chapter four presents this model, structural equations, multiplier
analysis, and suggestions for further development. Chapter five
deals with policy simulations, and the definition and measurement
of an empirical index of conflict between export-oriented and
industry-oriented growth styles, and discusses historical instances
of industrial support for copper export restrictive policies (an
industry-exports feedback effect working through long range political
decisions, beyond the limits of the econometric model). Chapter six
is the summary and conclusions of the work. Other material is
presented in several appendices.