Voter behaviour in Tanzania: a qualitative study of the 2015 elections
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Date
09/07/2018Item status
Restricted AccessEmbargo end date
31/12/2100Author
Macdonald, Robert
Metadata
Abstract
In October 2015, John Magufuli became President of Tanzania and his party (Chama
cha Mapinduzi, CCM) won a large majority in parliament. This thesis explains why
Tanzanians choose to vote the way they do in general and in these elections in
particular. It draws on qualitative interviews with approximately one-thousand voters
in four field sites: one urban and one rural area in Dodoma Region where CCM are
dominant, and a second pair of urban and rural areas from Mwanza Region in which
the opposition are more competitive. By using theories of social remembering to
understand vote preference, this thesis investigates a number of key issues that are
crucial to determining political outcomes in Tanzania: 1) CCM’s track record in
government; 2) The sources of information available to voters; 3) The role of money
in politics; 4) CCM’s attempts to discredit the opposition; 5) The progress of the
opposition since political liberalisation, and; 6) Local factors, including the
behaviour of candidates. Having addressed these dynamics, attention is turned to
how they played out during the 2015 election. The thesis concludes that, although
Magufuli had significant appeal to many voters, his victory was aided by
undemocratic manipulation. This shows that the process of political transition was
far from complete, even before post-election developments that have threatened basic
democratic principles in Tanzania.