Artículo

Sörensson, A.A.; Menéndez, C.G.; Ruscica, R.; Alexander, P.; Samuelsson, P.; Willén, U. "Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS" (2010) Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 19(4):347-355
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Abstract:

Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under AlB scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50 % in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. © Gebrüder Borntraeger, Stuttgart 2010.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS
Autor:Sörensson, A.A.; Menéndez, C.G.; Ruscica, R.; Alexander, P.; Samuelsson, P.; Willén, U.
Filiación:Centro de Investigaciones Del Mar y la Atmósfera, CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Los Océanos, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Física, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden
CIMA/CONICET/UBA Pabellón 2, Piso 2, Ciudad Universitaria, 1428 Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Amazon basin; Amazonia; Atmospheric model; Climate change scenarios; Down-scaling; Dry seasons; Dry spells; Dynamical downscaling; Extreme events; Extreme precipitation; Heavy precipitation; La Plata basin; Northeastern Brazil; Precipitation change; Seasonal mean; Seasonal precipitations; South America; Spring precipitation; Climate models; Drought; Climate change; atmospheric modeling; climate change; conference proceeding; downscaling; flooding; precipitation (climatology); risk assessment; seasonal variation; spring (season); weather forecasting; winter; Amazon Basin; Bolivia; Brazil; La Plata Basin; South America
Año:2010
Volumen:19
Número:4
Página de inicio:347
Página de fin:355
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0467
Título revista:Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Título revista abreviado:Meteorol. Z.
ISSN:09412948
CODEN:MEZEE
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09412948_v19_n4_p347_Sorensson

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Sörensson, A.A., Menéndez, C.G., Ruscica, R., Alexander, P., Samuelsson, P. & Willén, U. (2010) . Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 19(4), 347-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0467
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Sörensson, A.A., Menéndez, C.G., Ruscica, R., Alexander, P., Samuelsson, P., Willén, U. "Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS" . Meteorologische Zeitschrift 19, no. 4 (2010) : 347-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0467
---------- MLA ----------
Sörensson, A.A., Menéndez, C.G., Ruscica, R., Alexander, P., Samuelsson, P., Willén, U. "Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS" . Meteorologische Zeitschrift, vol. 19, no. 4, 2010, pp. 347-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0467
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Sörensson, A.A., Menéndez, C.G., Ruscica, R., Alexander, P., Samuelsson, P., Willén, U. Projected precipitation changes in South America: A dynamical downscaling within CLARIS. Meteorol. Z. 2010;19(4):347-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0467