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Abstract:

Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern South America. The first region includes southern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, north of Uruguay and the western sector of southern Brazil, the second region stretches over part of southern Brazil, while the third region, surrounding the Plata Estuary extends over western Uruguay and eastern Argentina between 37 ° S and 32 ° S. Regional monthly precipitation was considered extreme when it exceeded its mean value plus one standard deviation. Conditional empirical probabilities of Months with Extreme Precipitation (MEP) are more than twice and even four times higher than climatic probabilities when they are calculated under the restriction that the atmospheric indices were beyond certain extreme thresholds empirically defined. Combined conditional probability is even higher when the values of two or the three indices over their respective thresholds take place at the same time, but these cases are less frequent. The index that renders higher conditional probabilities is the one that accounts for the low level moisture convergence in a region that is basically to the west and outside of the three regions. This reflects the fact that most of the mesoconvective systems, which originate to the west of these regions and then move eastwards, produce heavy precipitation that lead to monthly accumulated extremes. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin
Autor:Garavaglia, C.R.; Doyle, M.E.; Barros, V.R.
Filiación:UMI-IFAECI, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Extreme monthly precipitation; Floods; Indexes; Mid-level tropospheric circulation; Moisture convergence; Probabilities; Southeastern south america
Año:2014
Volumen:21
Número:3
Página de inicio:553
Página de fin:562
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1374
Título revista:Meteorological Applications
Título revista abreviado:Meteorol. Appl.
ISSN:13504827
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_13504827_v21_n3_p553_Garavaglia

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Garavaglia, C.R., Doyle, M.E. & Barros, V.R. (2014) . Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin. Meteorological Applications, 21(3), 553-562.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1374
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Garavaglia, C.R., Doyle, M.E., Barros, V.R. "Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin" . Meteorological Applications 21, no. 3 (2014) : 553-562.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1374
---------- MLA ----------
Garavaglia, C.R., Doyle, M.E., Barros, V.R. "Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin" . Meteorological Applications, vol. 21, no. 3, 2014, pp. 553-562.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1374
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Garavaglia, C.R., Doyle, M.E., Barros, V.R. Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin. Meteorol. Appl. 2014;21(3):553-562.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1374