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Abstract:

General circulation models (GCMs) forced under different greenhouse gases emission and socioeconomic scenarios are currently the most extended tool throughout the scientific community that is used to infer the future climate on Earth. However, these models still have problems in capturing several aspects of regional climate variability in many parts of the globe. In this paper, the hydrological cycle of the La Plata Basin is simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrology model and forced with atmospheric data from different GCMs to determine to what extent errors in temperature and precipitation fields impact the hydrology of the basin. The skill assessment is performed in terms of simulated runoff at different closing points. Simulated hydrographs show that all of the GCMs present deficiencies in simulating the regional climatology of southern South America, and this leads to a very poor representation of the hydrological cycle of the main rivers across the basin. Two unbiasing schemes are then proposed as a means of correcting the GCM outputs before forcing the hydrology model, and comparisons between biased and unbiased simulations are also performed. Results indicate that both schemes, though methodologically different, reduce the water cycle simulation bias. Finally, VIC is forced with bias-corrected data from the GCMs for future decades (2030 and 2070) under different socioeconomic scenarios [e.g., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1B, A2, and B1] to determine the potential changes in streamflow due to climate change for the rest of the present century. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset
Autor:Saurral, R.I.
Filiación:Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (FCEN-UBA), Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research (CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:General circulation models; Hydrologic cycle; Hydrologic models; South America; climate change; data set; emission control; general circulation model; greenhouse gas; hydrograph; hydrological cycle; hydrological modeling; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; runoff; La Plata Basin
Año:2010
Volumen:11
Número:5
Página de inicio:1083
Página de fin:1102
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1178.1
Título revista:Journal of Hydrometeorology
Título revista abreviado:J. Hydrometeorol.
ISSN:1525755X
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_1525755X_v11_n5_p1083_Saurral

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
(2010) . The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11(5), 1083-1102.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1178.1
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Saurral, R.I. "The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset" . Journal of Hydrometeorology 11, no. 5 (2010) : 1083-1102.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1178.1
---------- MLA ----------
Saurral, R.I. "The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset" . Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 11, no. 5, 2010, pp. 1083-1102.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1178.1
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Saurral, R.I. The hydrologic cycle of the la plata basin in the WCRP-CMIP3 multimodel dataset. J. Hydrometeorol. 2010;11(5):1083-1102.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1178.1