Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning:  Summary report

Keitz, J. F.

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

Document ID

19850027225

Acquisition Source

Legacy CDMS

Document Type

Contractor Report (CR)

Authors

Date Acquired

September 5, 2013

Publication Date

April 1, 1982

Subject Category

Report/Patent Number

Accession Number

85N35538

Funding Number(s)

Distribution Limits

Public

Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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19850027225.pdf

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