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Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparisonWork performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.
Document ID
19930003689
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Contractor Report (CR)
Authors
Tiao, G. C.
(Chicago Univ. Chicago, IL, United States)
Date Acquired
September 6, 2013
Publication Date
November 1, 1992
Subject Category
Geophysics
Report/Patent Number
NAS 1.26:191248
NASA-CR-191248
Accession Number
93N12877
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAGW-2057
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
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