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An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methodsThe barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay.
Document ID
19960008978
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Song, Chang G. (Oklahoma Univ. Norman, OK, United States)
Jwo, Jung-Sing (Oklahoma Univ. Norman, OK, United States)
Lakshmivarahan, S. (Oklahoma Univ. Norman, OK, United States)
Dhall, S. K. (Oklahoma Univ. Norman, OK, United States)
Lewis, John M. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Norman, OK., United States)
Velden, Christopher S. (Wisconsin Univ. Madison, WI., United States)
Date Acquired
September 6, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 1994
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
NASA-CR-199768
NIPS-95-06431
NAS 1.26:199768
Accession Number
96N16144
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAG8-974
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.

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