Statistical Short-Range Forecast Guidance for Cloud Ceilings Over the Shuttle Landing Facility

Lambert, Winifred C.

This report describes the results of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task. The cloud ceiling forecast over the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) is a critical element in determining whether a Shuttle should land. Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters find that ceilings at the SLF are challenging to forecast. The AMU was tasked to develop ceiling forecast equations to minimize the challenge. Studies in the literature that showed success in improving short-term forecasts of ceiling provided the basis for the AMU task. A 20-year record of cool-season hourly surface observations from stations in east-central Florida was used for the equation development. Two methods were used: an observations-based (OBS) method that incorporated data from all stations, and a persistence climatology (PCL) method used as the benchmark. Equations were developed for 1-, 2-, and 3-hour lead times at each hour of the day. A comparison between the two methods indicated that the OBS equations performed well and produced an improvement over the PCL equations. Therefore, the conclusion of the AMU study is that OBS equations produced more accurate forecasts than the PCL equations, and can be used in operations. They provide another tool with which to make the ceiling forecasts that are critical to safe Shuttle landings at KSC.

Document ID

20010089870

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Kennedy Space Center

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Contractor Report (CR)

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September 7, 2013

Publication Date

August 1, 2001

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Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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