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Warming of the Indian Ocean Threatens Eastern and Southern Africa, but could be Mitigated by Agricultural DevelopmentSince 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high and declining per capita agricultural capacity retards progress towards Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation identify another problematic trend. Main growing season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus late 20th century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling millions of undernourished people as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people. On the other hand, modest increases in per capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.
Document ID
20080023358
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Authors
Funk, Chris (California Univ. Santa Barbara, CA, United States)
Dettinger, Michael D. (Geological Survey La Jolla, CA, United States)
Brown, Molly E. (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Michaelsen, Joel C. (California Univ. Santa Barbara, CA, United States)
Verdin, James P. (Geological Survey SD, United States)
Barlow, Mathew (Massachusetts Univ. Lowell, MA, United States)
Howell, Andrew (Massachusetts Univ. Lowell, MA, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2008
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX07AG26G
CONTRACT_GRANT: 04HQAG0001
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.

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