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Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity StudyWithin the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.
Document ID
20100015392
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Authors
Hurwitz, M. M.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Braesicke, P.
(Cambridge Univ. Cambridge, United Kingdom)
Pyle, J. A.
(Cambridge Univ. Cambridge, United Kingdom)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
January 2, 2010
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
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