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Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and DockingsIn 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.
Document ID
20110008220
Acquisition Source
Johnson Space Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Farnham, Steven J., II (ARES Corp. Houston, TX, United States)
Garza, Joel, Jr. (ARES Corp. Houston, TX, United States)
Castillo, Theresa M. (ARES Corp. Houston, TX, United States)
Lutomski, Michael (NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Date Acquired
August 25, 2013
Publication Date
March 13, 2011
Subject Category
Space Transportation And Safety
Report/Patent Number
JSC-CN-23014
Meeting Information
Meeting: ANS PSA 2011 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis
Location: LaGrange Park, IL
Country: United States
Start Date: March 13, 2011
End Date: March 17, 2011
Sponsors: American Nuclear Society
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.

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