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Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase ScintillationThe phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.
Document ID
20140009235
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
doi:10.1029/2012SW000800
Authors
Prikryl, P. (Communications Research Centre Ottawa, Ontario, Canada)
Jayachandran, P.T. (New Brunswick Univ. Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada)
Mushini, S. C. (New Brunswick Univ. Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada)
Richardson, I. G. (Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
July 16, 2014
Publication Date
August 14, 2012
Publication Information
Publication: Space Weather
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Volume: 10
Issue: 8
ISSN: 1542-7390
Subject Category
Geophysics
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN9780
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG06EO90A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
scintillation
probabilistic
toward

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