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Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United StatesConcentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.
Document ID
20140013046
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Strode, Sarah (Universities Space Research Association Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Cooper, Owen (Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Damo, Megan (Northrop Grumman Corp. United States)
Logan, Jennifer (Harvard Univ. Cambridge, MA, United States)
Rodriquez, Jose (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Strahan, Susan (Universities Space Research Association Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Witte, Jacquie (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
October 15, 2014
Publication Date
December 10, 2013
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN11105
Meeting Information
Meeting: American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting - 2013
Location: San Francisco, CA
Country: United States
Start Date: December 9, 2013
End Date: December 13, 2013
Sponsors: American Geophysical Union
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11HP05C
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG12HP08C
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11HP16A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
ozone
variability
trends

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