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Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied TaxaPremise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.
Document ID
20140017701
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
doi:10.3732/ajb.1200455
Authors
Mazer, Susan J. (California Univ. Santa Barbara, CA, United States)
Travers, Steven E. (North Dakota State Univ. Fargo, ND, United States)
Cook, Benjamin I. (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Davies, T. Jonathan (McGill Univ. Montreal, Quebec, Canada)
Bolmgren, Kjell (Lund Univ. Hospital Lund, Sweden)
Kraft, Nathan J. B. (Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Salamin, Nicolas (Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics Lausanne, Switzerland)
Inouye, David W. (Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
December 23, 2014
Publication Date
June 9, 2013
Publication Information
Publication: American Journal of Botany
Publisher: Botanical Society of America
Volume: 100
Issue: 7
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN17804
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF EF-0553768
WBS: WBS 509496.02.08.04.24
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
first flowering date
phenology
global warming
phenological response
climate change
phenological sensitivity

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