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The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot StudiesThe Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.
Document ID
20150002678
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Rosenzweig, C.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Jones, J. W.
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Hatfield, J. L.
(Agricultural Research Service Ames, IA, United States)
Ruane, A. C.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Boote, K. J.
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Thorburn, P.
(Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Clayton, Australia)
Antle, J. M.
(Oregon State Univ. Corvallis, OR, United States)
Nelson, G. C.
(International Food Policy Research Inst. Washington, DC, United States)
Porter, C.
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Janssen, S.
(Wageningen Univ. Wageningen, Netherlands)
Asseng, S.
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Basso, B.
(Michigan State Univ. East Lansing, MI, United States)
Ewert, F.
(Bonn Univ. Germany)
Wallach, D.
(Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Paris, France)
Baigorria, G.
(Nebraska Univ. Lincoln, NE, United States)
Winter, J. M.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
March 9, 2015
Publication Date
November 22, 2012
Publication Information
Publication: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume: 170
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN8896
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 281945.02.03.03.96
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX10AU63A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
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