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Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED ModelThe combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.
Document ID
20150003518
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
doi:10.1002/swe.20019
Authors
Emmons, D. (Air Force Inst. of Tech. Dayton, OH, United States)
Acebal, A. (Air Force Inst. of Tech. Dayton, OH, United States)
Pulkkinen, A. (Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
Taktakishvili, A. (Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
MacNeice, P. (Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
Odstricil, D. (Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
Date Acquired
March 24, 2015
Publication Date
March 4, 2013
Publication Information
Publication: Space Weather
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Volume: 11
Issue: 3
Subject Category
Space Sciences (General)
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN15042
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11PL10A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
coronal mass
magnetohydrodynamic
forecasting

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