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Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems DevelopmentOver the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.
Document ID
20150006970
Acquisition Source
Johnson Space Center
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Boyer, Roger L. (NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Bigler, Mark A. (NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Rogers, James H. (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
April 30, 2015
Publication Date
April 1, 2015
Subject Category
Space Transportation And Safety
Report/Patent Number
JSC-CN-33353
Meeting Information
Meeting: International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis
Location: Sun Valley, ID
Country: United States
Start Date: April 26, 2015
End Date: April 30, 2015
Sponsors: American Nuclear Society
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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