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The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical RisksThe Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.
Document ID
20150022114
Acquisition Source
Glenn Research Center
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Keenan, Alexandra (Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering Group Houston, TX, United States)
Young, Millennia (Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering Group Houston, TX, United States)
Saile, Lynn (Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering Group Houston, TX, United States)
Boley, Lynn (Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering Group Houston, TX, United States)
Walton, Marlei (Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering Group Houston, TX, United States)
Kerstman, Eric (Texas Univ. Medical Branch Houston, TX, United States)
Shah, Ronak (Texas Univ. Medical Branch Houston, TX, United States)
Goodenow, Debra A. (NASA Glenn Research Center Cleveland, OH United States)
Myers, Jerry G. (NASA Glenn Research Center Cleveland, OH United States)
Date Acquired
December 1, 2015
Publication Date
July 12, 2015
Subject Category
Aerospace Medicine
Statistics And Probability
Report/Patent Number
GRC-E-DAA-TN24857
Meeting Information
Meeting: International Conference on Environmental Systems
Location: Bellevue, WA
Country: United States
Start Date: July 12, 2015
End Date: July 16, 2015
Sponsors: American Inst. of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 444543.01.02.10
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAS9-02078
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
Risk Analysis
biomedical data
Spae Adaptation Syndrome

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