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Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch VehiclesLaunch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.
Document ID
20160007011
Acquisition Source
Marshall Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Hatfield, Glen S.
(Bastion Technologies, Inc. El Camino, TX, United States)
Hark, Frank
(Bastion Technologies, Inc. El Camino, TX, United States)
Stott, James
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
June 3, 2016
Publication Date
May 18, 2016
Subject Category
Quality Assurance And Reliability
Air Transportation And Safety
Launch Vehicles And Launch Operations
Report/Patent Number
M16-5007
Meeting Information
Meeting: International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS) Conference: Safety First, Safety for All
Location: Melbourne, FL
Country: United States
Start Date: May 18, 2016
End Date: May 20, 2016
Sponsors: Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, International Space Safety Foundation, European Space Agency, NASA Headquarters
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNM07AA74C
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
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