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The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonThe 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.
Document ID
20180007268
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Accepted Manuscript (Version with final changes)
Authors
Young-kwon Lim (Universities Space Research Association Columbia, Maryland, United States)
Siegfried D Schubert (Science Systems and Applications (United States) Lanham, Maryland, United States)
Robin Kovach (Science Systems and Applications (United States) Lanham, Maryland, United States)
Andrea M. Molod (Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland, United States)
Steven Pawson (Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland, United States)
Date Acquired
October 30, 2018
Publication Date
November 1, 2018
Publication Information
Publication: Scientific Reports
Publisher: Nature Research
Volume: 8
Issue Publication Date: November 1, 2018
e-ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: doi:10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN62162
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG17HP01C
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11HP16A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
SST
ENSO
EMDR

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