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GEOS S2S-2_1: The GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction SystemA new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.
Document ID
20190000405
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Molod, Andrea (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Hackert, Eric (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Achuthavarier, Deepthi (Universities Space Research Association (USRA) Columbia, MD, United States)
Akella, Santha (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Andrews, Lauren (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Arnold, Nathan (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Barahona, Donifan (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Borovikov, Anna (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham, MD, United States)
Cullather, Richard (Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Kovach, Robin (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham, MD, United States)
Koster, Randal (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Li, Zhao (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham, MD, United States)
Lim, Young-Kwon (Universities Space Research Association (USRA) Columbia, MD, United States)
Marshak, Jelena (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Nakada, Kazumi (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham, MD, United States)
Schubert, Siegfried (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham, MD, United States)
Suarez, Max (Universities Space Research Association (USRA) Columbia, MD, United States)
Vernieres, Guillaume (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Highlands, NJ, United States)
Vikhliaev, Yury (Universities Space Research Association (USRA) Columbia, MD, United States)
Zhao, Bin (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
February 5, 2019
Publication Date
December 10, 2018
Subject Category
Geosciences (General)
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN64354
Meeting Information
Meeting: American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting
Location: Washington, D.C.
Country: United States
Start Date: December 10, 2018
End Date: December 14, 2018
Sponsors: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11HP16A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX17AE79A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG17HP01C
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Use by or on behalf of the US Gov. Permitted.

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