Urbanisation is no longer driven by migration in low- and middle-income countries (1985-2015)

Menashe Oren, Ashira [UCL] Bocquier, Philippe [UCL]

Across the world, populations have transitioned to inhabiting urban spaces, and in low- and middle-income countries the proportion of people living in cities is expected to continue to increase. Anticipation of this fundamental process calls for better understanding of the demographic factors that drive the urban transition. By indirectly estimating the joint contribution of migration and reclassification to urban transition in 129 countries using Urban and Rural Population by Age and Sex data available from the United Nations over 1985 to 2015, we find that differences in natural increase between the rural and urban sectors explains most of the urbanisation over the thirty-year period examined. The role of migration-reclassification declines and is negligible by 2015. Despite data limitations, we confirm that it is misleading to view migration as fuelling urbanisation in low- and middle-income countries.