Magnitude and sources of uncertainties in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock assessments at various scales

Goidts, Esther [UCL] van Wesemael, Bas [UCL] Crucifix, Michel [UCL]

Uncertainties in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock assessments are rarely quantified even though they are critical in determining the significance of the results. Previous studies on this topic generally focused on a single variable involved in the SOC stock calculation (SOC concentration, sampling depth, bulk density and rock fragment content) or on a single scale, rather than using an integrated approach (i.e. taking into account interactions between variables). This study aims to apply such an approach to identify and quantify the uncertainties in SOC stock assessments for different scales and spatial landscape units (LSU) under agriculture. The error propagation method (delta method) was used to quantify the relative contribution of each variable and interaction involved to the final SOC stock variability. Monte Carlo simulations were used to cross-check the results. Both methods converged (r2=0.78). As expected, the coefficient of variation of the SOC stock increased across scales (from 5 to 35%), and was higher for grassland than for cropland. Although the main source of uncertainty in the SOC stock varied according to the scale and the LSU considered, the variability of SOC concentration (due to errors from the laboratory and to the high SOC spatial variability) and of the rock fragment content were predominant. When assessing SOC stock at the landscape scale, one should focus on the precision of SOC analyses from the laboratory, the reduction of SOC spatial variability (using bulk samples, accurate re-sampling, high sampling density or stratified sampling), and the use of equivalent masses for SOC stock comparison. The regional SOC stock monitoring of agricultural soils in southern Belgium allows the detection of an average SOC stock change of 20% within 11 years if very high rates of SOC stock changes occur (1 t C ha-1 year-1).