Inverse transport modeling of volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions using large-scale ensemble simulations

Heng, Y.; Stein, O.; Rößler, T.; Hoffmann, Lars; Griessbach, S.

doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9103-2015

Journal Article

FZJ-2015-06206

Inverse transport modeling of volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions using large-scale ensemble simulations

Heng, Y. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Hoffmann, L.FZJ* ; Griessbach, S.FZJ* ; Rößler, T.FZJ* ; Stein, O.FZJ*

2015
Copernicus Katlenburg-Lindau

Geoscientific model development discussions 8(10), 9103 - 9146 (2015) [10.5194/gmdd-8-9103-2015]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/9360 doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9103-2015

Abstract: An inverse transport modeling approach based on the concepts of sequential importance resampling and parallel computing is presented to reconstruct altitude-resolved time series of volcanic emissions, which often can not be obtained directly with current measurement techniques. A new inverse modeling and simulation system, which implements the inversion approach with the Lagrangian transport model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC) is developed to provide reliable transport simulations of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2). In the inverse modeling system MPTRAC is used to perform two types of simulations, i. e., large-scale ensemble simulations for the reconstruction of volcanic emissions and final transport simulations. The transport simulations are based on wind fields of the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. The reconstruction of altitude-dependent SO2 emission time series is also based on Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite observations. A case study for the eruption of the Nabro volcano, Eritrea, in June 2011, with complex emission patterns, is considered for method validation. Meteosat Visible and InfraRed Imager (MVIRI) near-real-time imagery data are used to validate the temporal development of the reconstructed emissions. Furthermore, the altitude distributions of the emission time series are compared with top and bottom altitude measurements of aerosol layers obtained by the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) satellite instruments. The final transport simulations provide detailed spatial and temporal information on the SO2 distributions of the Nabro eruption. The SO2 column densities from the simulations are in good qualitative agreement with the AIRS observations. Our new inverse modeling and simulation system is expected to become a useful tool to also study other volcanic eruption events.

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