Vencedores Vencidos : primarias, competitividad electoral y reversión del resultado en once provincias. Argentina, 2007-2015
Fecha
2020-12-07
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Facultad de Ciencia Política y Relaciones Internacionales
Resumen
Esta tesis doctoral busca verificar la relación entre la competitividad electoral
intrapartidaria e interpartidaria con la reversión del resultado inicial en los distritos
subnacionales argentinos que han legislado sobre elecciones primarias entre 2007
y 2015. En este sentido, se considera que la existencia de elevados niveles de
competitividad electoral interna en los partidos y/o frentes que participan de la
elección primaria generan el contexto para que se produzca una reversión del
resultado inicial en las elecciones generales y que esta posibilidad se profundiza si
también existe competitividad electoral interpartidaria.
En consecuencia, la presente tesis doctoral aborda las quince elecciones
realizadas en once distritos argentinos que han celebrado primarias abiertas,
simultáneas y obligatorias (PASO) para la selección de candidatos a cargos
ejecutivos provinciales –gobernador y vicegobernador- entre 2007 y 2015. Para
ello, se utiliza un enfoque multimétodos, combinando análisis documental e
información primaria obtenida de entrevistas a informantes clave con datos
cuantitativos recuperados de los resultados electorales que se utilizaron para
calcular índices electorales.
A estos fines, en una primera parte, se abordan la totalidad de los casos, es
decir, las quince elecciones subnacionales celebradas con la modalidad de PASO.
El objetivo es dar cuenta de las características de la competencia que este
mecanismo estableció en los once distritos que las adoptaron y las dinámicas de la
competitividad electoral intrapartidaria que generó en los partidos y/o frentes que
participaron en ellas.
En una segunda parte, se estudian en profundidad los cinco casos de reversión
del resultado inicial ocurridos en tres provincias –Buenos Aires (2015), Chubut
(2015) y Santa Fe (2007, 2011 y 2015)- con la finalidad de dar cuenta de las
condiciones de competitividad electoral intra e interpartidaria y la transferencia de
votos entre fuerzas políticas para explicar la reversión del resultado.
This dissertation seeks to verify the relationship between intra-party and interparty electoral competitiveness with the reversion of the initial result in Argentinian provinces that have legislated on primary elections between 2007 and 2015. In this sense, it is considered that the existence of high levels of intra-party electoral competitiveness in the primary election creates the context where a reversion of the initial result in the general election could occur and that possibility deepens on the existence of inter-party electoral competitiveness. Consequently, this thesis analyses fifteen elections occurred in eleven Argentinian subnational districts where open, simultaneous and compulsory primary elections (PASO, as per Spanish sign) have been held to select candidates for provincial executive posts –Governor and Vice Governor- between 2007 and 2015. To fulfill these aims, this dissertation uses a multi-method approach, combining documentary analysis and primary data obtained from interviews with key informants with quantitative data recovered from election results that were used to calculate electoral indices. In order to achieve the goals mentioned, in the first part, all the cases are presented, this means, fifteen primaries sub-national elections. The main goal here is to identify the characteristics of competition this mechanism of candidate selection established in eleven districts and the dynamics of the intra-party electoral competitiveness resulting in political parties or electoral coalitions, which ran in them. In the second part, five cases of reversion of the initial result are discussed. They occurred in three provinces –Buenos Aires (2015), Chubut (2015) and Santa Fe (2007, 2011 y 2015)-. The main purpose here is identifying the conditions of intra and inter-party electoral competitiveness and how votes are transferred among political forces to explain the reversion of the initial result.
This dissertation seeks to verify the relationship between intra-party and interparty electoral competitiveness with the reversion of the initial result in Argentinian provinces that have legislated on primary elections between 2007 and 2015. In this sense, it is considered that the existence of high levels of intra-party electoral competitiveness in the primary election creates the context where a reversion of the initial result in the general election could occur and that possibility deepens on the existence of inter-party electoral competitiveness. Consequently, this thesis analyses fifteen elections occurred in eleven Argentinian subnational districts where open, simultaneous and compulsory primary elections (PASO, as per Spanish sign) have been held to select candidates for provincial executive posts –Governor and Vice Governor- between 2007 and 2015. To fulfill these aims, this dissertation uses a multi-method approach, combining documentary analysis and primary data obtained from interviews with key informants with quantitative data recovered from election results that were used to calculate electoral indices. In order to achieve the goals mentioned, in the first part, all the cases are presented, this means, fifteen primaries sub-national elections. The main goal here is to identify the characteristics of competition this mechanism of candidate selection established in eleven districts and the dynamics of the intra-party electoral competitiveness resulting in political parties or electoral coalitions, which ran in them. In the second part, five cases of reversion of the initial result are discussed. They occurred in three provinces –Buenos Aires (2015), Chubut (2015) and Santa Fe (2007, 2011 y 2015)-. The main purpose here is identifying the conditions of intra and inter-party electoral competitiveness and how votes are transferred among political forces to explain the reversion of the initial result.
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Palabras clave
Elecciones, Argentina, Competitividad electoral, Elecciones provinciales