Abstract
A geographic information system (GIS)-based water-budget framework has been developed to study the climate-change impact on regional groundwater recharge, and it was applied to the Southern Hills aquifer system of southwestern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana, USA. The framework links historical climate variables and future emission scenarios of climate models to a hydrologic model, HELP3, to quantify spatiotemporal potential recharge variations from 1950 to 2099. The framework includes parallel programming to divide a large amount of HELP3 simulations among multiple cores of a supercomputer, to expedite computation. The results show that a wide range of projected potential recharge for the Southern Hills aquifer system resulted from the divergent projections of precipitation, temperature and solar radiation using three scenarios (B1, A2 and A1FI) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Parallel Climate Model 1 (PCM) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab’s (GFDL) model. The PCM model projects recharge change ranging from −33.7 to +19.1 % for the 21st century. The GFDL model projects less recharge than the PCM, with recharge change ranging from −58.1 to +7.1 %. Potential recharge is likely to increase in 2010–2039, but likely to decrease in 2070–2099. Projected recharge is more sensitive to the changes in the projected precipitation than the projected solar radiation and temperature. Uncertainty analysis confirms that the uncertainty in projected precipitation yields more changes in the potential recharge than in the projected temperature for the study area.
Résumé
Un système d’information géographique (SIG) basé sur le cadre d’un bilan hydrique a été développé pour étudier l’impact du changement climatique sur la recharge des aquifères à l’échelle régionale et a été appliqué au système aquifère des Southern Hills dans le Sud-Ouest du Mississippi et le Sud-Est de la Louisiane, aux Etats Unis d’Amérique. Le cadre relie les variables climatiques historiques et les scénarios futurs d’émission des modèles climatiques à un modèle hydrologique, HELP3, afin de quantifier les variations potentielles spatio-temporelles de la recharge entre 1950 et 2099. Le cadre inclut une programmation parallèle afin de diviser un grand nombre de simulations de HELP3 sur plusieurs noyaux d’un supercalculateur, pour accélérer les temps de calcul. Les résultats montrent qu’une large gamme de recharge potentielle prévue pour le système aquifère des Southern Hills a entraîné des projections divergentes des précipitations, de température et de rayonnement solaire en utilisant trois scénarios (B1, A2 et A1F1) du modèle parallèle 1 (PCM) du Centre National pour la recherche atmosphérique et du modèle (GFDL) du Laboratoire national pour l’administration océanique et atmosphérique des dynamiques des fluides géophysiques. Le modèle PCM projette un changement de recharge allant de −33.7 à +19.1 % pour le 21ème siècle. Le modèle GFDL projette une recharge moindre que le PCM, avec une modification de recharge comprise entre −58.7 à +7.1 %. La recharge potentielle est susceptible d’augmenter pour la période 2010–2039, est de diminuer pour la période 2070–2099. La recharge projetée est plus sensible aux changements de la précipitation prévue que pour le rayonnement solaire et la température. L’analyse de l’incertitude confirme que l’incertitude des précipitations projetées conduit à plus de changements dans la recharge potentielle que dans la température projetée sur la zone d’étude.
Resumen
Se desarrolló un sistema de información geográfica (GIS) basado en el marco de referencia del balance de agua para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático sobre la recarga regional del agua subterránea, y se aplicó al sistema acuífero Southern Hills en el sudoeste de Mississippi y el sudeste de Luisiana, EEUU. El marco de referencia vincula variables climáticas históricas y escenarios de futuras emisiones de modelos climáticos con un modelo hidrológico, HELP3, para cuantificar las variaciones espacio temporales de la recarga potencial desde 1950 a 2099. El marco de referencia incluye programación paralela para dividir una gran cantidad de simulaciones HELP3 entre múltiples núcleos de una supercomputadora, para agilizar el cálculo. Los resultados muestran que un amplio rango de la recarga potencial proyectada para el sistema acuífero de Southern Hills resulta de proyecciones divergentes de precipitación, temperatura y radiación solar usando tres escenarios (B1, A2 y A1FI) del Modelo 1 del National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Parallel Climate (PCM) y del modelo de la National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab’s (GFDL). El modelo PCM proyecta cambios en la recarga que varían entre −33.7 y +19.1 % para el siglo 21. El modelo GFDL proyecta menos recarga que el PCM, con un cambio en la recarga que va desde −58.1 a +7.1 %. La recarga potencial es altamente probable que se incremente entre 2010–2039, pero probablemente disminuya entre 2070–2099. La recarga proyectada es más sensible a los cambios en la precipitación proyectada que a la radiación solar y a la temperatura proyectadas. El análisis de incertidumbre confirma que la incertidumbre en la precipitación proyectada produce cambios mayores en la recarga potencial que en la temperatura proyectada para el área de estudio.
摘要
本論文發展以地理資訊系統 (GIS) 為主的水預算架構來研究氣候變遷對區域地下水補注的影響。此架構已被應用到美國密西西比州西南部和路易斯安那州東南部的南丘含水層系統。該架構聯接1950年到2099年歷史氣候變量和未來溫室氣體排放情景到水文模式,HELP3,以量化潛在地下水補注的時空變化。為了加快計算,這個架構包含平行編程來分配大量HELP3模擬到超級電腦內的多個計算內核。研究結果發現南丘含水層系統的地下水補注量預測範圍廣泛。 這是因為國家中心大氣研究的平行氣候模式1 ( PCM) 和美國國家海洋和大氣管理局地球物理流體動力學實驗室 ( GFDL ) 模式下的三個溫室氣體排放情景 (B1,A2和A1FI) 所預測的降水,溫度,和太陽輻射極大差異。PCM模式對21世紀地下水補注的預測變化從-33.7到19.1%。該GFDL模式預測地下水補注小於PCM模式。預測值變化從-58.1至7.1 % 。地下水補注在2010年至2039年較有可能增加,但較有可能在2070年至2099年減少。補注的變化對於預測降雨量比預測的太陽輻射和溫度更敏感。不確定性分析證實在研究區域內預測降水量的不確定性產生的地下水補注變化比預測溫度的不確定性更多。
خلاصه
تغییریک روش بر اساس سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) و سیستم توازن آب توسعه داده شده است تا بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم در تغذیه آب های زیرزمینی منطقه ای را مطالعه کند و به سیستم آبخوان Southern Hills درجنوب غربی میسیسیپی و جنوب شرقی لوئیزیانا در ایالات متحده آمریکا اعمال شد. این روش متغیرهای اقلیمی تاریخی و سناریوهای انتشار آینده از مدل های اقلیمی را به یک مدل هیدرولوژیکی،HELP3 ، متصل میکند تا تغییرات فضایی-مکانی در تغذیه آب های زیرزمینی بالقوه را از سال 1950 تا سال 2099 میلادی ارزیابی کند. این روش برای تسریع محاسبات، شامل برنامه نویسی موازی است تا مقدار زیادی از شبیه سازی های HELP3 را در میان هسته های چندگانه از یک ابر رایانه تقسیم کند. نتایج نشان می دهد که طیف گسترده ای از تغییر در تغذیه آب های زیرزمینی بالقوه برای سیستم آبخوان Southern Hills وجود دارد که حاصل از پیش بینی های متفاوت از بارش، دما و تابش خورشیدی با استفاده از سه سناریوB1، A2 و A1FI از مدل اقلیمی موازی1 (PCM) در مرکز ملی تحقیقات جوی و از مدل آزمایشگاه دینامیک سیالات ژئوفیزیک (GFDL) در سازمان ملی اقیانوسی و جوی است. مدل PCM پیش بینیمیکند که آب زیر زمینیبالقوه از -33.7 % تا % +19.1در قرن بیست و یکم تغییر کند. مدل GFDL با محدوده تغییرات آب زیر زمینی از -58.1% تا 7.1+ %، آب زیر زمینیکمتری نسبت به مدل PCM پیش بینیمیکند. آب زیر زمینیبالقوه به احتمال زیاد از سال 2010 تا 2039 میلادی افزایش ولی از سال 2070 تا 2099 میلادی کاهش مییابد. آب زیر زمینیپیش بینی شده حساسیت بیشتری به تغییرات در بارش پیش بینی شده، نسبت به تابش خورشیدی و دمای پیش بینی شده دارد. تجزیه و تحلیل عدم قطعیت تایید می کند که عدم قطعیت در بارش پیش بینی شده، منجر به تغییرات بیشتری در آب زیر زمینیبالقوه، نسبت به دمای پیش بینی شده برای منطقه مورد مطالعه میشود.
Resumo
Um sistema de informação geográfico (SIG), com base no balanço hídrico, foi desenvolvido para estudar o impacte das alterações climáticas na recarga regional das águas subterrâneas do sistema aquífero das Colinas do Sul no sudoeste do Mississípi e no sudeste da Louisiana, nos EUA. O trabalho desenvolvido relaciona variáveis climáticas históricas e cenários de emissões futuras de modelos climáticos com o modelo hidrológico HELP3, visando a quantificação das variações da recarga espaciotemporal potencial entre 1950 e 2099. O trabalho inclui programação paralela, de forma a dividir multiplas simulações do HELP3 em múltiplos núcleos de um supercomputador, para tornar a computação mais expedita. Os resultados mostram que uma vasta gama de recarga potencial projetada no sistema aquífero das Colinas do Sul resultam de projeções divergentes da precipitação, da temperatura e da radiação solar usando três cenários (B1, A2 e A1FI) do Modelo 1 do National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Parallel Climate (PCM) e o modelo do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL). Para o século XXI, o modelo PCM projeta alterações de recarga que variam entre −33.7 to +19.1 %. O modelo GFDL projeta valores de recarga menores, com a recarga a variar entre −58.1 a +7.1 %. É provável que a recarga potencial aumente no período 2010–2039 e que diminua no período 2070–2099. A recarga projetada é mais sensível às alterações da precipitação projetada do que aos valores da radiação solar e da temperatura projetadas. Análises de incerteza confirmam que a incerteza na precipitação projetada conduz a mais alterações na recarga potencial do que na temperatura projetada para a área em estudo.
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Acknowledgements
The study was supported in part by Grant/Cooperative Agreement Number G10AP00136 from the United States Geological Survey and by the Louisiana Water Resources Research Institute. The contents of the study are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the USGS. The authors thank Louisiana Optical Network Initiative (LONI) and LSU High Performance Computing for providing supercomputers and technical support.
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Beigi, E., Tsai, F.TC. Comparative study of climate-change scenarios on groundwater recharge, southwestern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana, USA. Hydrogeol J 23, 789–806 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-014-1228-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-014-1228-8