Manufacturing Fetishism: The Neo-Mercantilist Preoccupation with Protecting Manufacturing

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2016-12-06

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Abstract

Two common views are that a country cannot develop without a strong manufacturing base and that trade restrictions are essential to facilitate the development of that strong manufacturing base and thus spur economic growth. We ask: • Does a strong manufacturing share of GDP facilitate economic growth? • Do trade restrictions ensure the development of a strong manufacturing base? • How can governance affect manufacturing share? • And are the relationships we find robust across regions? We find the manufacturing share is not significantly correlated with a higher standard of living. Nor is it related significantly and consistently to economic growth. We also find that trade restrictions both at home and abroad shrink the manufacturing base and smother economic growth. A better way than protectionism and subsidies specific to industry to enhance economic growth is to improve governance effectiveness and the quality of regulation.

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Scholars@Duke

Tower

Edward Tower

Professor Emeritus of Economics

Professor Tower specializes in finance, computable general equilibrium modeling, macroeconomics, development economics, microeconomics, and managerial economics. He conducts a majority of his research within the study of trade and development, exploring a variety of variables from tariffs, quotas, and time zone arbitrage, to equities, mutual funds, and index mutual funds. Since he began publishing his work in 1965, he has contributed over 130 articles to leading academic journals and has had several books, chapters, and papers appear in print. Some of his more recent writings include, “School Choice: Money, Race, and Congressional Voting on Vouchers,” completed in collaboration with O. Gokcekus and J. Phillips; “Rational Pessimism: Predicting Equity Returns by Tobin’s q and Price/Earnings Ratio” with M. Harney; and “Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Tweaking the Gordon Formula” with K. Reinker. Much of his work pertaining to U.S. trade policy has been used to determine congressional voting on protectionist issues based on campaign contributions. His work on financial issues has also played an important role in determining the value of the U.S. stock market. His latest studies involved an investigation of congressional voting on importation of ethical drugs and predicting returns on both foreign and U.S. equity.


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