Mechanistic Habitat Modeling with Multi-Model Climate Ensembles

Loading...
Thumbnail Image

Date

2013-04-25

Advisors

Johnston, David

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Repository Usage Stats

1182
views
560
downloads

Abstract

Projections of future Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) were prepared using a 13-member ensemble of climate model output from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Three climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5), corresponding to low, moderate, and high climate change possibilities, were used to generate these projections for known Harp Seal whelping locations. The projections were splined and statistically downscaled via the CCAFS Delta method using satellite-derived observations from the National Sea Ice Data Center (NSIDC) to prepare a spatial representation of sea ice decline through the year 2100. Multi-Model Ensemble projections of the mean sea ice concentration anomaly for Harp Seal whelping locations under the moderate and high climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) show a decline of 10% to 40% by 2100 from a modern baseline climatology (average of SIC, 1988 - 2005) while sea ice concentrations under the low climate change scenario remain fairly stable. Projected year-over-year sea ice concentration variability decreases with time through 2100, but uncertainty in the prediction (model spread) increases. The general decline in sea ice projected by climate models is detrimental to Harp Seal survival, but the effect of the decreased year-over-year variability is less certain.

Description

Provenance

Citation

Citation

Jones, Hunter (2013). Mechanistic Habitat Modeling with Multi-Model Climate Ensembles. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/6819.


Dukes student scholarship is made available to the public using a Creative Commons Attribution / Non-commercial / No derivative (CC-BY-NC-ND) license.