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Título
Assessing farmers' adaptation responses to water conservation policies through modular recursive hydro-micro-macro-economic modeling
Autor(es)
Palabras clave
Agricultores
Conservación del agua
Economía
Clasificación UNESCO
5308 Economía General
Fecha de publicación
2022
Editor
Elsevier
Citación
Pérez-Blanco, C. D., Parrado, R., Essenfelder, A. H., Bodoque, J., Gil-García, L., Gutiérrez-Martín, C., Ladera, J., & Standardi, G. (2022). Assessing farmers’ adaptation responses to water conservation policies through modular recursive hydro-micro-macro-economic modeling. Journal of Cleaner Production, 360, 132208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132208
Resumen
[EN] Farmers’ adaptation responses to water conservation policies involve a complex decision-making process that
depends on a range of criteria, including water availability, profits, and risks, which are in turn dependent on
(and might have consequences at) broader scale processes including water systems and the macroeconomy. The
non-consideration of the complex interactions between and within natural and human systems often leads to
unforeseen consequences and sub-optimal water policy design. There exists a fundamental need to improve our
understanding of complex human-water (e.g. hydro-economic) and human-human (e.g. micro-macroeconomic)
systems’ interactions so to better inform policy-makers. This paper develops an innovative modeling framework
for capturing the richness of interactions in complex human-water systems by: i) considering the rationale behind
farmers’ behavior and responses through microeconomic models; ii) assessing the complex interactions among
economic sectors and regions within an economy through macroeconomic models; iii) simulating responses on
water cycle dynamics within a river basin by means of hydrologic modeling; and iv) representing the interconnected dynamics and two-way feedback responses between human-water and human-human (through micromacro-economic) systems. The proposed modeling framework operates through a recursive modular approach
built from independent modules which are, in turn, connected through a set of protocols that control the exchange of information. Methods are illustrated considering an incremental agricultural water charging policy in
the Spanish part of the Douro River Basin (DRB). Results show that local land use reallocations have an impact on
the supply of irrigated (rainfed) agricultural commodities at the macroeconomic level, which further leads to
higher (or lower) commodity prices that partially offset changes in crop profitability due to changing water
charges and readjustments in the crop portfolio. These, in turn, result in non-linear responses in land and water
use with non-trivial impacts on water system’s dynamics, where evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and
groundwater evapotranspiration are the main hydrologic components affected. We conclude that the integration
of hydro-micro-macro-economic modules through a set of protocols can provide crucial information for promoting the efficient design of agricultural water policies.
URI
ISSN
0959-6526
DOI
10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132208
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Publicación en abierto financiada por la Universidad de Salamanca como participante en el Acuerdo Transformativo CRUE-CSIC con Elsevier, 2021-2024